Will Netflix Renew '3 Body Problem'? A Look at the Numbers

By Dustin Rowles | TV | March 27, 2024 |

By Dustin Rowles | TV | March 27, 2024 |

A few years ago, in an attempt to figure out the chances a show might get renewed, I dug into the numbers provided by Netflix and found that a freshman series that accumulated more than 100 million hours viewed in its first full week on the charts was guaranteed renewal, and anything below that would be canceled. It was foolproof … until it wasn’t.

The number continued to hold, sort of: Shows that went over 100 million were renewed, but there were a few that didn’t reach that magic number that were nevertheless picked up for additional seasons (That 90s Show, The Diplomat, FUBAR).

In June of last year, however, Netflix changed its metric from “hours viewed” to “views,” a more accurate reflection of a series’ popularity (views are the number of hours viewed divided by the number of episodes). With the new metric, I was curious to see if there was a magic number. There’s not! Not really, anyway. It’s clear that the cost of a show, its longevity within the top 10, and even the target demographic matter.

Here is how all the live-action scripted multi-season series (not limited series) stack up since last June. These are the views for the first full week on the Netflix charts (series typically premiere on a Thursday and do not get a full week in their chart debuts). Note that the biggest series since last June was a limited series, Fool Me Once, which gained a ridiculous 37 million views in its first full week.

The Gentlemen — 20 million (no decision yet)
Avatar: The Last Airbender — 19.9 million (renewed)
One Piece — 19 million (renewed)
The Witcher Season 3 — 13.8 million (renewed)
My Life with the Walter Boys — 12.8 million (renewed)
Black Mirror Season 6 — 11.6 million (renewed)
Virgin River Season 5 — 9.6 million (renewed)
Obliterated — 9 million (canceled)
The Lincoln Lawyer Season 2 — 8.3 million (renewed)
The Brothers — 6.9 million (canceled)
Sweet Magnolias Season 3 — 5.3 million (renewed)
Heartstopper Season 2 — 4 million (renewed)
Glamorous — 3.5 million (canceled)

A few things: Though no decision has yet been made, I think we can assume that The Gentlemen will get another season, as it’s the most viewed scripted, non-limited series of the year. Twenty million views should be enough to offset the expense of the series.

On the other end, Obliterated — another fairly expensive series — was canceled with 9 million views. My guess is that 10 million views is the bare minimum for an expensive series to gain renewal. Note that the exceptions were more inexpensive YA series (Sweet Magnolias, Heartstopper), or The Lincoln Lawyer, which had insane legs (it stuck around in the Netflix top 10 for two months).

I’m mostly curious about 3 Body Problem, because I loved the first season but it is a planned three-season series, and I’d like to see the additional seasons. The numbers for the second full week have not yet come in, so we don’t know how it will stack up. It is worth noting, however, that in its first half-week, it hit 11 million views compared to the 12 million views The Gentlemen received in its first half-week. That suggests a first full week will probably land in the 18-20 million views range.

Is that enough? For a series that reportedly cost $30 million an episode? I think it would put the show on the bubble, so to speak, and Netflix would wait and see how well it continued to play over the coming weeks. It is worth noting, however, that 3 Body Problem did not hit number one on the Netflix charts until its 5th day of release, suggesting that word of mouth may be helping to drive additional viewership (it is still number one today). I hope more people continue to watch it in the coming days. It may help that there is no major new competition on Netflix this week, and the biggest release next week is the black-and-white Ripley.

Fingers crossed.