Supergirl Is the First Major Flop of the Summer

It’s getting harder and harder to predict what will be a hit at the box office. Post-lockdown and strikes, and following the endless nightmare of monopolistic buyouts, the film industry is in a messy state. Certain things used to be guarantees and now they’re not. We’re seeing it play out with the big releases of 2026. Some things were always going to be mega-hits, like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Michael. And once upon a time, a June that featured a big-name superhero movie and a new release from the king of blockbusters would never be considered risks. Well, welcome to 2026.

This past weekend saw the release of Supergirl, the newest DC movie and one of the first big releases of the James Gunn era. But hopes for a repeat of Superman’s success were quickly dashed as the film grossed a mere $63 million worldwide on its opening weekend. That’s well below initial expectations and nowhere near close to breaking even on a reported budget of $170 million. Reviews were mixed but that hasn’t stopped many a middling superhero movie from breaking the bank. Audiences this time round simply didn’t seem all that interested.

It wasn’t just Kara and her dog that felt the slump. Steven Spielberg returned to the summer blockbuster mould with Disclosure Day, a flashy original sci-fi adventure thriller starring Josh O’Connor and Emily Blunt. This guy basically created the concept of the high-concept big-budget family flick, so expectations were high that he could pull off one hell of a coup, even with a non-IP. It opened strongly enough, and it has more than made back its initial budget of $115 million. But the second weekend drop was major — 60.2% — then the third week one went to 53.4%. As we head into July, with films like Minions & Monsters and The Odyssey on the horizon, it seems unlikely that Spielberg’s movie will be able to play out in the long term. Mixed reviews won’t help.

I wonder if there’s a generational gap at play with films like this. Younger audiences spent a lot of time being barraged with superhero movies they were told were must-sees just to keep up with continuity and it quickly became exhausting. And Spielberg isn’t a big name to them, plus Disclosure Day was thoroughly designed to appeal to adults (which I think is a good thing, mind you.) Meanwhile, stuff like Obsession and Backrooms are making money hand over fist thanks to great word of mouth and support for young talent. They don’t feel like endless retreads, nor are they remakes of stuff we’ve seen a hundred times before. Disclosure Day is original too, yes, but the middling reviews may have negatively impacted people’s desires to see it in a cinema.

Going to the movies is expensive. People don’t do it as often as they used to. When they do put down their money (and organise parking and food and maybe babysitting), they want to feel that it’s worth it. So, you either go to a capital-E Event movie, something you know all the kids will love, or one that everyone has raved about for weeks. You cannot fake hype. And Hollywood, which has always been several steps behind the times when it’s working properly, just keeps throwing money at the wall to see what sticks.

I don’t think there’s a sturdy formula to predict much of anything nowadays. We don’t want remakes until we do. We yearn for original stuff but often reject it. Truly, I think we’re all craving some sort of cinematic nourishment but haven’t found the ideal source of it yet. The industry hasn’t found a new trend to run into the ground, and in the meantime, we’re looking for something vital. We didn’t feel it with Supergirl or The Mandalorian & Grogu or Masters of the Universe. Maybe the minions will save us.