A Surprising Early Twist Keeps Apple TV+'s 'Smoke' Smoldering—for Now

Apple TV+’s Smoke comes from novelist Dennis Lehane, who’s written some excellent books, and a few that haven’t landed as well. After two episodes, it’s unclear where Smoke — inspired by the podcast Firebug, about arsonist John Leonard Orr — falls on that spectrum. Lehane has a strong track record in television (The Wire, Boardwalk Empire, Mr. Mercedes), so I’m inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt. Here, he reunites with Taron Egerton and Greg Kinnear, both of whom starred in his 2022 Apple TV+ riveting limited series Black Bird.

Egerton plays Dave Gudsen, a former firefighter turned arson investigator. He’s paired with police detective Michelle Calderon (Jurnee Smollett) to investigate two ongoing serial arson cases he hasn’t been able to solve. Calderon, a former Marine with a promising future in the department, has been sidelined after an affair with the wrong man — a superior officer, played by Rafe Spall, who uses her assignment to arson cases as punishment after she rejected him after he left his wife. (For the few Trying fans out there, it’s genuinely disorienting to see Spall as an abusive creep with an American accent.)

Gudsen initially seems affable and even a little endearing — he’s an aspiring novelist with a friendly demeanor — but that quickly unravels. His step-kid resents him, his wife barely tolerates him, and beneath the surface, there’s a deeply unpleasant man. One of the arsonists is revealed early on: a put-upon, middle-aged fast-food worker who sets fires to feel some measure of control in his life. Kinnear plays Gudsen and Calderon’s supervisor, a familiar upright authority figure in line with other familiar Greg Kinnear roles.

At first, it’s difficult to know what to make of Smoke. The pacing feels off, the tone ambiguous. The arsonist’s backstory makes him more pitiful than terrifying, and Gudsen’s shift from charming to repellent feels abrupt and frustrating.

But that’s also where the show finds its focus. Spoilers for episode two: the twist at the end of the episode changes our perspective entirely. Smollett is great as a detective trying to recover from self-inflicted career damage, but the real hook is the reveal that Gudsen isn’t just an asshole — he’s the second arsonist. And Calderon is starting to suspect it. That shift reframes the entire series and gives it a much-needed sense of urgency and tension and of what I expect will be a cat-and-mouse game between two great actors.

Still, the show has seven episodes to go, and it’s not clear there’s enough story to justify the full season unless Lehane introduces new elements. We’ve yet to meet characters played by John Leguizamo and Anna Chlumsky, so it’s possible reinforcements are coming. But Apple TV+ has developed a pattern of high-potential dramas that lose momentum halfway through—Dope Thief, Prime Target, Dark Matter, Before, Lady in the Lake, Palm Royale, Manhunt—and that’s just in the last 18 months. Here’s hoping Smoke can avoid the same fate.