Determining the Oscar Winners in the Acting Categories Based on the Pajiba Scale of UGLY SEXY CRAZY

The Academy Awards ceremony airs this Sunday, the culmination of months and months of award ceremonies, lobbying, politics, and web and print copy. Did you know that there were actual websites devoted exclusively to the Oscars? That, starting with Sundance, they spend the entire year debating, predicting, and speculating upon who might win an Academy Award? That they begin compiling potential nominees list in April? They actually update odds on a weekly basis leading up to the Academy Awards, based on a number of factors, and these writers often even stake their entire reputations on their prognostications.

It seems like an excruciating, near pointless and almost silly exercise, but there is apparently an audience for it. In the acting categories, however, it seems you could probably throw all those prognostication skills out and reduce predictions to five simple factors, which seem to almost guarantee predicting success: 1) Physical or mental illness (and extra consideration is given if the movie turns on that illness); 2) ugliness (either natural or cosmetic, and points are given for effort to look ugly, even if that effort failed (see Jennifer Lawrence)), 3) the level of sex or nudity; 4) Accent, either natural or affected; and 5) past nominations. Using those very factors on this year’s acting nominees, we’ve come up with our own Pajiba predictions, based on our sophisticated Crazy Sexy Ugly Oscar algorithm. It’s more than foolproof; it’s science.

Each nominee is ranked in each category from the least (1) to the most (5).

Best Actor

Javier Bardem, Biutiful

Physical or Mental Illness: 4 (Cancer)

Ugliness: 2

Sex or Nudity: 2

Accent: 3

Career Nominations: 3

Total Score: 14

Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Physical or Mental Illness: 2 (Alcoholism)

Ugliness: 3

Sex or Nudity: 1

Accent: 3

Career Nominations: 6

Total Score: 15

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Physical or Mental Illness: 2 (Aspergers)

Ugliness: 1

Sex or Nudity: 1

Accent: 1

Career Nominations: 1

Total Score: 6

Colin Firth, The King’s Speech

Physical or Mental Illness: 5 (Speech Impediment)

Ugliness: 1

Sex or Nudity: 1

Accent: 3

Career Nominations: 2

Total Score: 12

James Franco, 127 Hours

Physical or Mental Illness: 1

Ugliness: 1

Sex or Nudity: 1

Accent: 1

Career Nominations: 1

Total Score: 5

Best Actor Winner: Jeff Bridges

Best Actress

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Physical or Mental Illness: 1 (Slight OCD)

Ugliness: 1

Sex or Nudity: 2

Accent: 1

Career Nominations: 4

Total Score: 9

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Physical or Mental Illness: 3 (Grief)

Ugliness: 2

Sex or Nudity: 2

Accent: 1

Career Nominations: 3

Total Score: 11

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone

Physical or Mental Illness: 1

Ugliness: 3

Sex or Nudity: 1

Accent: 4

Career Nominations: 1

Total Score: 10

Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Physical or Mental Illness: 5 (Crazy)

Ugliness: 2

Sex or Nudity: 4

Accent: 1

Career Nominations: 2

Total Score: 14

Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Physical or Mental Illness: 1

Ugliness: 2

Sex or Nudity: 5

Accent: 1

Career Nominations: 2

Total Score: 11

Best Actress Winner: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Fighter

Physical or Mental Illness: 4 (Drug Addiction)

Ugliness: 5

Sex or Nudity: 2

Accent: 4

Career Nominations: 1

Total Score: 16

John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone

Physical or Mental Illness: 3 (Psychotic)

Ugliness: 4

Sex or Nudity: 1

Accent: 3

Career Nominations: 1

Total Score: 12

Jeremy Renner, The Town

Physical or Mental Illness: 1

Ugliness: 1

Sex or Nudity: 1

Accent: 4

Career Nominations: 2

Total Score: 9

Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

Physical or Mental Illness: 1

Ugliness: 1

Sex or Nudity: 3

Accent: 1

Career Nominations: 1

Total Score: 7

Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

Physical or Mental Illness: 1

Ugliness: 4

Sex or Nudity: 1

Accent: 4

Career Nominations: 4

Total Score: 14

Best Supporting Actor Winner: Christian Bale

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Fighter

Physical or Mental Illness: 1

Ugliness: 2

Sex or Nudity: 2

Accent: 3

Career Nominations: 2

Total Score: 10

Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech

Physical or Mental Illness: 1

Ugliness: 2

Sex or Nudity: 1

Accent: 3

Career Nominations: 2

Total Score: 9

Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Physical or Mental Illness: 3 (Crazy)

Ugliness: 5

Sex or Nudity: 1

Accent: 5

Career Nominations: 2

Total Score: 16

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Physical or Mental Illness: 1

Ugliness: 3

Sex or Nudity: 1

Accent: 3

Career Nominations: 1

Total Score: 9

Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Physical or Mental Illness: 4 (Crazy)

Ugliness: 4

Sex or Nudity: 1

Accent: 3

Career Nominations: 1

Total Score: 13

Best Supporting Actress Winner: Melissa Leo

← Storytellers: Soldiers of Someone Else's Fortune: The Polish Invasion of Haiti | Ranking, from Worst to Best (and Without Comment), The Last 25 Best Picture Winners →

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Dustin is the founder and co-owner of Pajiba. You may email him here, follow him on Twitter, or listen to his weekly TV podcast, Podjiba.

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