By Dustin Rowles | Lists | February 26, 2011 |
By Dustin Rowles | Lists | February 26, 2011 |
The Academy Awards ceremony airs this Sunday, the culmination of months and months of award ceremonies, lobbying, politics, and web and print copy. Did you know that there were actual websites devoted exclusively to the Oscars? That, starting with Sundance, they spend the entire year debating, predicting, and speculating upon who might win an Academy Award? That they begin compiling potential nominees list in April? They actually update odds on a weekly basis leading up to the Academy Awards, based on a number of factors, and these writers often even stake their entire reputations on their prognostications.
It seems like an excruciating, near pointless and almost silly exercise, but there is apparently an audience for it. In the acting categories, however, it seems you could probably throw all those prognostication skills out and reduce predictions to five simple factors, which seem to almost guarantee predicting success: 1) Physical or mental illness (and extra consideration is given if the movie turns on that illness); 2) ugliness (either natural or cosmetic, and points are given for effort to look ugly, even if that effort failed (see Jennifer Lawrence)), 3) the level of sex or nudity; 4) Accent, either natural or affected; and 5) past nominations. Using those very factors on this year’s acting nominees, we’ve come up with our own Pajiba predictions, based on our sophisticated Crazy Sexy Ugly Oscar algorithm. It’s more than foolproof; it’s science.
Each nominee is ranked in each category from the least (1) to the most (5).
Best Actor
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Physical or Mental Illness: 4 (Cancer)
Ugliness: 2
Sex or Nudity: 2
Accent: 3
Career Nominations: 3
Total Score: 14
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Physical or Mental Illness: 2 (Alcoholism)
Ugliness: 3
Sex or Nudity: 1
Accent: 3
Career Nominations: 6
Total Score: 15
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Physical or Mental Illness: 2 (Aspergers)
Ugliness: 1
Sex or Nudity: 1
Accent: 1
Career Nominations: 1
Total Score: 6
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Physical or Mental Illness: 5 (Speech Impediment)
Ugliness: 1
Sex or Nudity: 1
Accent: 3
Career Nominations: 2
Total Score: 12
James Franco, 127 Hours
Physical or Mental Illness: 1
Ugliness: 1
Sex or Nudity: 1
Accent: 1
Career Nominations: 1
Total Score: 5
Best Actor Winner: Jeff Bridges
Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Physical or Mental Illness: 1 (Slight OCD)
Ugliness: 1
Sex or Nudity: 2
Accent: 1
Career Nominations: 4
Total Score: 9
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Physical or Mental Illness: 3 (Grief)
Ugliness: 2
Sex or Nudity: 2
Accent: 1
Career Nominations: 3
Total Score: 11
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Physical or Mental Illness: 1
Ugliness: 3
Sex or Nudity: 1
Accent: 4
Career Nominations: 1
Total Score: 10
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Physical or Mental Illness: 5 (Crazy)
Ugliness: 2
Sex or Nudity: 4
Accent: 1
Career Nominations: 2
Total Score: 14
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Physical or Mental Illness: 1
Ugliness: 2
Sex or Nudity: 5
Accent: 1
Career Nominations: 2
Total Score: 11
Best Actress Winner: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Physical or Mental Illness: 4 (Drug Addiction)
Ugliness: 5
Sex or Nudity: 2
Accent: 4
Career Nominations: 1
Total Score: 16
John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
Physical or Mental Illness: 3 (Psychotic)
Ugliness: 4
Sex or Nudity: 1
Accent: 3
Career Nominations: 1
Total Score: 12
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Physical or Mental Illness: 1
Ugliness: 1
Sex or Nudity: 1
Accent: 4
Career Nominations: 2
Total Score: 9
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Physical or Mental Illness: 1
Ugliness: 1
Sex or Nudity: 3
Accent: 1
Career Nominations: 1
Total Score: 7
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
Physical or Mental Illness: 1
Ugliness: 4
Sex or Nudity: 1
Accent: 4
Career Nominations: 4
Total Score: 14
Best Supporting Actor Winner: Christian Bale
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Physical or Mental Illness: 1
Ugliness: 2
Sex or Nudity: 2
Accent: 3
Career Nominations: 2
Total Score: 10
Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
Physical or Mental Illness: 1
Ugliness: 2
Sex or Nudity: 1
Accent: 3
Career Nominations: 2
Total Score: 9
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Physical or Mental Illness: 3 (Crazy)
Ugliness: 5
Sex or Nudity: 1
Accent: 5
Career Nominations: 2
Total Score: 16
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Physical or Mental Illness: 1
Ugliness: 3
Sex or Nudity: 1
Accent: 3
Career Nominations: 1
Total Score: 9
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Physical or Mental Illness: 4 (Crazy)
Ugliness: 4
Sex or Nudity: 1
Accent: 3
Career Nominations: 1
Total Score: 13
Best Supporting Actress Winner: Melissa Leo
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