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The Good News (and Bad News) from all the Latest Political Polling

By Dustin Rowles | Politics | February 19, 2020 |

By Dustin Rowles | Politics | February 19, 2020 |


Remember six months ago, when I would post a poll or two, and our readers would be, like, “It’s six months away! F**k you! The polls don’t matter!”

The polls matter now. I mean, maybe you can call their accuracy into question, although they were mostly right in New Hampshire, save for the surge of support for Klobuchar (among those who made up their mind on the day of the primary).

So, how is it looking nationally? There are three national polls out today, and they all show roughly the same thing: Bernie is ahead, Biden and Bloomberg are in a tussle for second place, and Elizabeth Warren comes in fourth in all three polls, ahead of Buttigieg and Klobuchar. From Axios:

Washington Post-ABC News:
Sanders: 32% (up 9% since January)
Biden: 16% (-16%)
Bloomberg: 14% (+6%)
Warren: 12% (even)
Buttigieg: 8% (+8%)
Klobuchar: 7% (+4%)

NBC News-Wall Street Journal:
Sanders: 27% (even since January)
Biden: 15% (-11%)
Bloomberg: 14% (+5%)
Warren: 14% (-1%)
Buttigieg: 13% (+6%)
Klobuchar: 7% (+2%)

NPR-PBS NewsHour-Marist:
Sanders: 31% (up 9% since December)
Bloomberg: 19% (+15%)
Biden: 15% (-9%)
Elizabeth Warren: 12% (-5%)
Amy Klobuchar: 9% (+5%)
Pete Buttigieg: 8% (-5%)

So, there’s still marginally more support for the moderate lane than the progressive one, but again, unless Bloomberg, Biden, or Buttigieg drop out, Bernie will continue to win pluralities, and if he does so on Super Tuesday, it’s going to be very difficult for any of the moderates to catch up by the convention.

On the other hand, if Warren drops out, Bernie takes this in a cakewalk. I also know that there’s still a lot of people who dislike Bernie, but if you’re going to vote moderate, for the love of God, stay away from Michael Bloomberg. As Dr. Wilson here notes, he’s Competent Evil, which is dangerous as hell. And look at this:

That was in 2019! LAST YEAR. And then this:

Bloomberg is so bad that Meghan McCain thinks he’s evil, and do you know who her father is? Or her husband?

Ironically, the Bloomberg campaign texted me as I was drafting this post!

Screen Shot 2020-02-19 at 9.57.11 AM.png

Will I vote for him if he wins the nomination? Uh yeah, sure. I guess. But come on: We can do better than f**king Michael Bloomberg, who probably now has me on a list.

Remember, above, how I said that Warren was fourth in all three polls? Ahead of both Klobuchar and Buttigieg? Well, here’s another poll showing how each of the candidates fares head-to-head against Trump, only guess who is missing? The Warren erasure is real (I saw somewhere on Twitter that the people who designed the polls said that they could only include 5 people in the poll. OK, cool. WHY ISN’T WARREN ONE OF THEM?)

That’s good news there for all the Democrats, although national polls don’t mean a thing come November. What will matter will be Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. There are no recent head-to-head polls in Pennsylvania, but one from Wisconsin last week shows both Biden and Bernie in a dead heat with Trump, while in Michigan the latest head-to-head polls show all the candidates — but Bernie and Biden in particular — with a lead on Trump.

And here’s one thing I’ll say against this narrative that Trump will crush Bernie because he’ll paint him as a socialist: This is not new information. Bernie ran four years ago. His politics are not a mystery. His policy positions are already baked in. It’s like if Trump decided to use Buttigieg’s sexual orientation against him. Like, notwithstanding that one voter in Iowa, everyone already knows that Buttigieg is gay. It is not new intelligence! And these polls consistently show Bernie ahead of Trump in spite of what Americans have known about him for the last 4 years.

And here’s one thing I’ll say against Bernie: Release your damn medical records and don’t gaslight journalists by treating them like they’re insane people for asking. You’re 78. You just had a heart attack. IT’S A REASONABLE THING TO ASK.

Seriously, Bernie: It’s not like this job gets easier once you become President. If your heart can’t take it, we deserve to know.

Finally: My favorite poll of the day: Susan Collins is in a “statistical tie with her Democratic opponent” according to the first poll of the season here in Maine. Her “Democratic opponent” is actually up by one point. This is big, because at this point, Susan Collins is still basically losing to “her Democratic opponent,” because Sara Gideon hasn’t even won the nomination yet, and the state doesn’t know her as well as Collins, who typically runs up the score come election day. In six months, voters will know Sara Gideon, too, and she is pretty fantastic, notwithstanding whatever mud Collins and the GOP can dig up on her.

Dustin is the founder and co-owner of Pajiba. You may email him here, follow him on Twitter, or listen to his weekly TV podcast, Podjiba.

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