— Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearings kick off this morning in the Senate. Here are three things you should know about that:
1) A former W. Bush lawyer released 42,000 documents on Kavanaugh last night, mere hours before his confirmation began, giving Democrats absolutely no time to comb through them;
2) Public support for Kavanaugh is dismal. Thirty-nine percent of Americans believe he should not be confirmed compared to only 38 percent who do, reflecting the weakest support since Harriet Miers, who withdrew, and Robert Bork, who was rejected, and
3) it won’t matter. Barring a bombshell, Kavanaugh will almost certainly be confirmed, and he’s probably going to get the support of a few Red-State Democrats, to boot. Part of that is the nature of the system — it just takes 50 votes in the Senate, and Democrats only have 49 — and part of it is the Democratic Party, which doesn’t know how to play dirty, which is both to their credit and their detriment.
I genuinely don’t even want to cover the hearings, because for the next two weeks or so, all that’s going to happen is that we’re going to hear about all that Kavanaugh endangers in our legal and political system, and we’re not going to be able to do a damn thing about it, unless you live in Maine — as I do — and we can somehow convince Susan Collins to reject Kavanaugh. She won’t.
— Personally, I’d rather focus on the more optimistic news, which is this:
63 days until Election Day 2018— David P Gelles (@gelles) September 4, 2018
According to the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, generic Democrats are now up on generic Republicans by a whopping 14 points, 52 percent to 38 percent. Moreover, a whopping 60 percent of the country wants to see Democrats take control of Congress as a check on Trump’s agenda. Meanwhile, Trump’s approval rating sits at 36 percent, the lowest for any President heading into the midterms since 1954.
This is a particularly important statistic for Democrats:
The number of self-reported registered voters who say they’re certain to vote this year has grown from 62 percent in January to 67 percent in April to 75 percent now. Those gains have occurred disproportionately in more Democratic groups - up 24 points among blacks since April, up 17 points among 18- to 29-year-olds and up 11 points among Democrats and moderates alike, for example.
It’s worth noting that in Nate Silver’s poll of polls, there’s also been some actual movement in favor of the Democrats. They now have a 77 percent chance of taking back the House; generic Democrats hold a 12 point advantage in the poll of polls; and Trump’s disapproval rating has hit 54 percent.
— If for some reason you need even more incentive to go out to the polls this November, this tweet ought to provide it:
Two long running, Obama era, investigations of two very popular Republican Congressmen were brought to a well publicized charge, just ahead of the Mid-Terms, by the Jeff Sessions Justice Department. Two easy wins now in doubt because there is not enough time. Good job Jeff……— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 3, 2018
The President is actively chastizing the DOJ because it is not playing politics.
….The Democrats, none of whom voted for Jeff Sessions, must love him now. Same thing with Lyin’ James Comey. The Dems all hated him, wanted him out, thought he was disgusting - UNTIL I FIRED HIM! Immediately he became a wonderful man, a saint like figure in fact. Really sick!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 3, 2018
Trust that there is not a Democrat in America that loves — or even likes — Jeff Sessions, and most of us despise James Comey, too, because he’s a big reason why we’re all in this mess.
What's remarkable about Trump’s attack on Sessions re GOP congressmen is that, like similar episodes, (a) he openly abuses his office, (b) his abuse is verbal, not operational, (c) he's ineffective in executing his corrupts aims, (d) his openness is one key to his ineffectiveness— Jack Goldsmith (@jacklgoldsmith) September 4, 2018
Finally, I leave you with this, as we head into the midterms. David Hogg — Parkland, Fl. activist — raised $10,000 in less than 24 hours through a GoFundMe campaign to have a billboard sign installed in Texas with this tweet:
Why would the people of Texas support Ted Cruz when he has accomplished absolutely nothing for them. He is another all talk, no action pol!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 28, 2016
Let’s make the next 63 days count, folks.