I have written a lot of bedwetting articles in recent days as a part of our site’s Get Out the Vote Effort, an effort that around the office we are unofficially calling the “Vote Or We Will Banhammer You Into Oblivion” campaign. By using the same sophisticated algorithm that produces those incredibly obnoxious ads around the holiday season (we apologize, but we really, really appreciate those of you who tolerate them), we can track your IP addresses, match them to voter records, and not only ban you from the site, but from the Internet if you don’t vote. I’m sorry. We opted into the program before we really read the Terms of Service, and it’s too late to get out now. So, please vote.
Anyway, many of those bedwetting articles have been focused on North Carolina and Florida, the two most pivotal states in this election. Putting everything else aside, what we do know with almost mathematical certainty is that Donald Trump cannot win without winning Florida. Based on polls and early voting, the state has looked like a toss up. In fact, according to raw, early numbers, as of 5:30 a.m. this morning, 21,212 more Registered Republicans have voted than Registered Democrats, and with over 4 million votes cast in Florida already, close to 50 percent of the vote in the state has already been tallied.
A 21,000 vote advantage for Republicans in early voting is not exactly comforting, is it? Well, here’s the good news: A William & Mary Poll released last night polled those early voters, so in effect it’s as much an exit poll as a predictive one. Based on this poll of people who have already voted, 28 percent of Registered Republicans have crossed over to vote for Hillary Clinton.
Twenty-eight (28) percent.
That is decisive. Better news still is that only 6 percent of registered Democrats are crossing over to vote for Trump. So, if we apply that exit poll to the raw early voting numbers, we see Hillary Clinton leading early voting by a 53-40 margin.
That’s a good number. That poll also predicts that Clinton ultimately will win the state by a 48-40 margin. That’s the ballgame for Trump.
The bad news, which is also kind of good news, is that based on that exit polling of early voters, Marco Rubio holds a 49-43 advantage over his Democratic challenger, Patrick Murphy. The bad news is that Rubio is likely to hold his seat in the Senate, but the comforting news for me is that exit polling showing that Rubio wins decisively means that it’s probably not a poll weighted heavily for Democrats, which suggests that the 28 percent number is solid.
And if you think I’m being dramatic, listen to Lawrence O’Donnell. His voice pattern is human clickbait.