Don't Worry Too Much About the Latest Poll Showing Trump Leading Hillary Clinton
If you’ve been on Twitter today, you may have noticed a very dispiriting trending item:
That 41 percent represents the percentage of people who say they will vote for Donald Trump in this November’s general election, while 39 percent say they will vote for Hillary Clinton. If you click on the trending item, you also get a terrifying, life-altering glimpse at Trump Twitter. NEVER GO TO TRUMP TWITTER.
It looks like this:
Trump 41%— Phil (@oasisupernova) May 2, 2016
AND HE HASN'T EVEN STARTED ON HER YET!
It's official folks. Donald Trump has surpassed Crooked Hillary for the first time in the national polls. Trump: 41% Hillary: 39%. #MAGA— FAB NEWS REPORT (@fabrightwing) May 2, 2016
If you’re easily scared when it comes to statistics and probabilities where it concerns the likelihood of Donald Trump winning the presidency, you may have quickly begun researching the citizenship application process for foreign countries. Can we seek asylum in a Caribbean nation, for instance, under the danger posed by a Trump presidency?
But don’t worry. In fact, this is a much better approach:
Definite urge to screenshot all these gloating "Trump 41%" tweets for November 9th.— Iron Spike (@Iron_Spike) May 2, 2016
Why? Because that “poll” that suggests that Donald Trump has a shot in hell at winning this November comes from Rasmussen, a notoriously right-leaning polling organization and the “least accurate” of the major polls, according to Nate Silver. Here’s his take on Rasussen after the 2010 election:
“The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.”
In fact, since news of the poll broke a couple of hours ago, I have only seen conservative outlets reporting the results, although a number of Bernie supporters on Twitter are using the poll to illustrate that Sanders has a better shot against Hillary in November.
Trump 41% proves that no one wants #Hillary, except a bunch of out of touch Democrats & DNC that blocked Bernie by suppressing the vote.— James Alias (@jf2good) May 2, 2016
However, neither Bernie nor Hillary supporters need worry yet that Trump will become President, as the other polls clearly show Hillary in the lead.
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