In the past two weeks — and especially since Friday — the numbers for Donald Trump have gone from bad to worse. Here’s how Nate Silver sees the race at the moment.
Here’s how the NYTimes sees it:
But that doesn’t really even tell the whole story, because — for instance — Nate Silver still gives Donald Trump a 97 percent chance of winning Utah. However, according to a poll released this morning, Donald Trump has not only fallen into a tie with Hillary Clinton, but some guy named Evan McMullin has a legitimate shot at taking the state.
Mormons do not like Donald Trump. In fact, Trump is so unpopular with Mormons that Clinton is actually reaching out to Mormon voters with a “We are all Mormons” ad in both Utah and Nevada. There are 11 Mormon Democrats in Utah, and turnout among Republicans may be so depressed in Utah that the 11 Mormon Dems could win the state.
Nate Silver also gives Trump a 70 percent chance of winning Georgia, but Democrats are reallocating sources there because internal polls show that not only Clinton, but down-ballot Democrats have a decent shot of winning the state. Same in Arizona.
The Trump situation has put down-ballot candidates in a bind, because — according to anecdotal evidence from the NYTimes — there are Republican voters who actually plan to vote for Democratic candidates as a protest vote against Republicans who support Trump and and voters who plan to vote against Republicans who have turned against Trump. The GOP may want to consider splitting into two parties for the next election: Sane GOP and The PCF (Party of Crazy Fuckers).
Speaking of polling, Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway took a strange approach to dismissing Clinton’s chances of winning by arguing to Anderson Cooper that she’s only been able to amass 46 percent of the vote. She became flustered, however, when Anderson Cooper pointed out the obvious: That she’s still beating Trump by 9 points. “Oh but, uh, but oh, but jeez, Anderson.”
Kellyanne Conway rips Hillary's low poll numbers to Anderson Cooper, who then completely flusters Conway w facts. pic.twitter.com/zh5q7F3eQ0— Jimmy Traina (@JimmyTraina) October 12, 2016
Meanwhile, in Florida, 77 percent more Hispanic voters are requesting mail-in ballots than in 2012, and they are all breaking toward Democrats in much larger numbers than they did in 2012. In North Carolina, ballot requests in the most populous counties is up 17 percent among Democrats and down 27 percent among Republicans.
Meanwhile, in the one large swing state that Trump was winning two weeks ago, Ohio, he is now down by 9 points. She’s even pulled ahead by one point in the second district of Maine, and y’all, a lot of those people are the backwards AF voters who put Paul LePage — the man who yesterday said that the country needs an “authoritarian” like Donald Trump — into office. The racists in Northern Maine will vote for a man who says that black people named D-Money and Smoothie are coming from New York and impregnating their white women, but they won’t for a guy who assaults their white women.
It’s so bad right now that even in Alaska — the state that elected Sarah Palin to office — Clinton is within the margin of error in a two-way race. ALASKA.
The landslide is coming. Make sure to vote, so that you, too, can be part of a historic landslide.
Rosa is today’s Trump header pic, because it’s heartbreaking to think about Rosa crying in the bathroom on Brooklyn Nine-Nine. You can follow Dustin on Twitter.