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Are Republicans Leading in the Congressional Generic Poll Now?

By Dustin Rowles | Politics | February 20, 2018 |

By Dustin Rowles | Politics | February 20, 2018 |


When Donald Trump lies, he should at least try to make them convincing. For instance, does anyone believe this? I don’t even think his base believes it:

Donald Trump has done nothing to deter the Russians from further meddling. In fact, he’s done the opposite of nothing: He has actually refused to enforce sanctions passed by Congress.

But this tweet? Even knowing that Trump lies, I got a little jolt of fear when he suggested that Republicans were leading in the generic poll, because I know that Trump’s approval ratings have inexplicably gone up. Where does he get his information?

Trump is actually citing a poll from McLaughlin & Associates, but he clearly can’t decipher the poll, because even in that poll, it shows Democrats winning the generic ballot by three points, 45 to 42.

However, other polls have not suggested a race as close as the McLaughlin & Associates poll. A recent Economist poll shows Dems up by 4, a Reuters poll shows a 9 point lead, PPD shows an 8 point lead, a Marist poll shows an 11 point lead, and a Quinnipiac poll shows a nine-point lead, and all of those polls are from this month.

So, no: Republicans are not winning in any generic polls, and several suggest wide leads.

What’s more, actual elections have demonstrated strength within the Democratic party. They have flipped 38 seats in state special elections since 2016. Moreover, yesterday, Rep. Thomas J. Rooney became the 28th Republican House member to quit politics ahead of the midterms. I believe I also read that 12 of those are in districts that Hillary won and that no controlling party that has had an incumbent retire has ever won a district against an opponent in enemy territory. That suggests 12 wins, plus the new Pennsylvania map shows Ds picking up as many as six seats. Those two factors alone give the Democrats possibly 18 of the 24 seats they need to flip the House.

So, no: Republicans are in no way favored to win the House in the midterms.