Public Policy Polling, a credible polling agency (unlike Rasmussen), has some encouraging and discouraging new data. The good news is, in a head-to-head matchup, Hillary is leading Trump 42-38. The bad news is, in a head-to-head matchup, Hillary is only leading Trump 42-38.
What’s happening, according to their poll data, is that the Republicans are unifying around Trump as much as they rallied around McCain and Romney. Trump leads Hillary 78-7 among Republicans, which is to say: Most Republicans still hate Hillary more than they dislike Trump.
Demographically, and in terms of the Electoral College, Hillary seems to have this in the bag. But, as Mark Halperin has been arguing (basically since 2008), the media hates Hillary Clinton and they love a good horse-race, so the media is probably going to turn this into a competitive general election by covering Trump three-to-one over Hillary, and going more negative on her. Meanwhile, it will probably play up Trump’s move to the center, remind us of his past as a Democrat, and generally make him as palatable as Trump’s rhetoric will allow.
You’ve probably been reading a lot of pieces that suggest Hillary is going to win in a blow-out because of Trump’s unfavorables and his inability to win over minority voters and women. Hillary has a similar problem, however, with white men. She basically needs 30 percent of white men to win the general, and the fact that that’s in question says all you need to know about how most men feel about Hillary.
I don’t get it.
And who are all these white men supporting Trump? According to PPP:
— 65% think President Obama is a Muslim.
— 27% think vaccines cause autism.
— 24% think Antonin Scalia was murdered
— 7% think Ted Cruz’s father was involved in the assassination of JFK
These are clearly not rational people.
The below numbers, however, are hilarious, not only because PPP polled voters on whether they prefer Nickelback or hipsters to Trump, but because most do. Trump, however, is marginally more preferred to hemorrhoids and cockroaches, but it’s close!
Again, the fact that Hillary is only leading a guy viewed less favorably than Nickelback by four points is, frankly, some cause for concern.
And yes, Bernie folks: The same polls do show Bernie soundly defeating Trump.