Old School. Biblically Independent.
By Kayleigh Donaldson | Film | March 14, 2026
It's been a long season, and now it's coming to an end this weekend. The 98th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, concluding what has been a pretty dang good year for films. 2025 gave us a slew of incredible films and one of the strongest Best Picture line-ups in a long time. It was a season of great speeches, overdue props, and surprises that have delighted rather than aggravated. Moreover, this is a rare season where many of the big races haven't been set in stone. We could still see some shocks on Sunday, and that would be exciting without pissing anyone off. Seriously, do you know how rare it is to have this sort of season, where we don't have any trite Oscar bait or bland cycle of biopics or a slew of winners that were decided months in advance?
But this does make my annual predictions a lot messier. Truly, there are calls here that I've made on the flip of a coin rather than pure professional certainty. I'm so used to the Academy being as predictable as can be. They're known for playing it safe, to the point of feeling hopelessly out of date. But 2025? It gave us: a political drama-slash-stoner comedy about how left-wing insurgency is good, actually; a horror-drama-musical about Black community and familial strife and also vampires; a heart-breaking historical fanfiction about art as a tool of grief; a nihilistic sci-fi black comedy of conspiracy and corporate control; a Brazilian political thriller spy comedy featuring a subplot with a dismembered leg on a kicking spree; and an anxiety-inducing portrait of a narcissist ping pong player that delves into ideas of class, Jewishness, and toxic masculinity. These are not 'awards bait.' And isn't that amazing?
So, here are my predictions for the above-the-line wins at this year's Oscars. If you lose money based on my guesses, I hold no responsibility for that. But if you win, then you have to share the cash. It's only fair.
BEST PICTURE
For months, I've been asserting that One Battle After Another was destined to win this award. It had the perfect narrative. It made a ton of money. It was on almost every Best Films of 2025 list, usually in the top spot. It was just time for the Academy to finally embrace Paul Thomas Anderson, one of the greatest directors of his generation and someone who has, inexplicably, never won an Oscar before. Certainly, it's been sweeping up most of the precursor awards.
But then there's Sinners, the most Oscar-nominated film of all time. Everyone loves it, and it's on all of those Best Of 2025 lists too. Here we have an organic hit, an original movie not based on any pre-existing property, made by a beloved director who has become a true industry power player. That SAG win for Best Ensemble gave it a real boost, and there's just this sense among prognosticators I've talked to that this is the movie of the moment. Neither movie would be a bad win. Honestly, they'd both be a phenomenal choice, and it's not as though Best Picture is short of excellent movies this year. Most of them would be deserving winners, from The Secret Agent to Hamnet to Sentimental Value.
I'm still going to give the edge to One Battle After Another for the big win. It's a big, funny, dramatic, ambitious but still accessible movie with some political heft and a bona fide megastar in its lead. Then again, so is Sinners. See, it's a tough choice! But the PTA narrative is mighty and the Academy is still prone to ignoring genre movies and Black stories. But truly, there's a race here where, only a few months ago, it was thought to be a one-horse run.
WHO WILL WIN: One Battle After Another
WHO SHOULD WIN: OBAA would be a worthwhile and deserving winner, but so would Sinners. The Secret Agent is my favourite film of 2025 so of course I'd kill for that win. Really, aside from F1 and maybe Frankenstein, which is one of Guillermo del Toro's weaker efforts, most of the shortlisted films would be great Best Picture wins.
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The absence of It Was Just an Accident still stings, and we would have loved more noms for If I Had Legs I'd Kick You or Die My Love.
BEST DIRECTOR
Again, for months, this has seemed like a lock for Paul Thomas Anderson. It's weird that he's never won an Oscar before given that he made masterpieces like There Will Be Blood, The Master, and Phantom Thread. Sure, he's got plenty of nominations but he's always the bridesmaid. One Battle After Another seems definitive for PTA, the ultimate display of his skills that became a genuine commercial hit in ways few could have predicted. If there ends up being a split in votes that gives Sinners the edge in Best Picture, I still feel like the votes for Best Director will be in PTA's favour. The 'it's time' narrative is enticing for a reason.
If Ryan Coogler were to win, he would become the first-ever Black director to take home the award, which is kind of ridiculous. But he would be one hell of a good choice. Sinners is an incredible tightrope walk of a movie, so ambitious and multi-genred without losing its wide appeal. If one element had been askew, the entire movie would have crumbled to pieces.
WHO WILL WIN: Paul Thomas Anderson.
WHO SHOULD WIN: PTA or Coogler.
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Lynne Ramsay, Jafar Panahi, Clint Bentley, Park Chan-wook or Kleber Mendonça Filho.
BEST ACTOR
We've spent the past few months hearing that Timothee Chalamet had this in the bag. It seemed like a rare opportunity for the Academy to celebrate an actor under the age of 45, and Chalamet's ascendency as one of the best performers of his generation seemed primed for that walk onto the stage of the Kodak Theatre. He had the goods: the reviews, the role, and the hunger. But then Michael B. Jordan won the SAG Award and suddenly we had a real race.
I still don't buy the notion that people are trying to humble Timmy by not voting for him. Yeah, he's confident and openly ambitious, but he's also backed that up enough through critical and commercial hits that the Academy has adored. If he wins, it won't be a shock nor will it be undeserved. Whatever you think of Marty Supreme, it's undeniable that the movie is Timmy's baby.
What Jordan has in his favour is a bigger movie, a flashier role(s), and sheer undiluted movie-star charisma. He's a first-time nominee, unlike Chalamet, but like his contemporary he's someone the industry has rallied behind as a safe bet for the future. Just watch the video of him winning the SAG award and feel the excitement in the room at his victory. Often, we overcomplicate why Oscar voters choose their winners when the defining factor is largely pure likeability. What did Academy members enjoy watching the most? Frankly, I think Sinners beats Marty Supreme easily on that front.
Am I ready to call it for MBJ or Timmy? I'm nervous. It truly feels up in the air. That alone is exciting. Okay, fine, I'll day Timmy, but don't be mad at me if I'm wrong.
WHO WILL WIN: Timothee Chalamet, but Michael B. Jordan is also likely.
WHO SHOULD WIN: My beloved Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent.
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Jesse Plemons was excellent in Bugonia while Joel Edgerton was heartbreaking in Train Dreams. In my dream world, Harry Melling would be in for Pillion.
BEST ACTRESS
This is one of the rare locks of the night. Jessie Buckley's led the race from the beginning and it's highly unlikely anyone can or wants to stop the Hamnet train. It's unlikely that Chloe Zhao's drama will win any other major awards, but Buckley's gut-wrenching and scene-stealing performance will certainly get its dues. There's been a weird effort to label Buckley as an Oscar season villain, largely because she's had such an easy run with no real competition, and because many critics preferred the pricklier work of Rose Byrne, another movie about a mother going through hell. I think that's unfairly dismissive of what Buckley is doing in Hamnet and how raw her work is. Byrne would also be highly deserving - in a better world, she would have been nominated before for some of her scene-stealing comedy work - but if the vote comes down to which movie the Academy has warmer feelings on, the choice is obvious.
WHO WILL WIN: Jessie Buckley.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Buckley or Rose Byrne.
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Amanda Seyfried is revelatory in The Testament of Ann Lee and Jennifer Lawrence deserved far better for what she did with Die My Love.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sean Penn seems to have soared forward in the final couple of weeks as the frontrunner for One Battle After Another. It's one of his best performances in years, a blend of goofy comedy and unnerving toxic masculinity. Still, even though Penn is a two-time Oscar winner, it does feel kind of surprising that he's the frontrunner here given that he's, you know, Sean Penn the unmitigated a***hole. And it's not like his competition is sparse: his co-star Benicio del Toro is iconic in only a few small scenes; Jacob Elordi proves himself as a serious actor in Frankenstein; Delroy Lindo finally gets his dues with his first-ever nomination for Sinners; and Stellan Skarsgard cements his own image as a legend across language barriers with Sentimental Value.
It might be that the sheer volume of viable choices has made it so Penn wins by a squeaker. If there's no obvious frontrunner or surge of voters rallying behind one choice, it may not take a big portion of ballots to push Penn over the edge. I'd rather it went to Skarsgard, frankly. Yeah, it's category fraud but the work itself is stellar.
WHO WILL WIN: Sean Penn.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Stellan Skarsgard.
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Miles Caton for Sinners and the other Skarsgard, Alexander, for Pillion.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
If most of the big races are between two options, Best Supporting Actress has three possible winners vying for the crown. Teyana Taylor won the Golden Globe, Wunmi Mosaku won the BAFTA, and Amy Madigan won both the Critics Choice and SAG Awards. We have two rising stars in the biggest films of the Oscar season and a character actress legend breaking through unexpectedly in a horror movie. The Academy loves an ingenue and typically rejects horror, but things are slowly changing with the latter. There's a real sense of eagerness to celebrate Madigan and her wild performance as Aunt Gladys in Weapons. The character became instantly iconic and a younger Academy voter base seems more aware of the real work that went into making her come to life. And in terms of pure fun? It's kind of unbeatable. I'm going to put it on the line and predict Madigan. Admit it, you want to see it happen too.
WHO WILL WIN: Amy Madigan.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Honestly, all of them? Shout out to the Sentimental Value duo, neither of whom have gotten enough credit this season.
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Regina Hall was excellent and sinfully overlooked in One Battle After Another, Nina Hoss was dominant in Hedda, and pour one out for Glenn Close in Wake Up Dead Man.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This feels like an easy win for Sinners. In terms of pure originality, nothing even comes close, but it's also impeccably constructed, a labyrinth of themes and characters that comes together so elegantly. If anything is going to play spoiler here, which is unlikely, it's Joachim Trer and Eskil Vogt for Sentimental Value, which is well represented across the major categories.
WHO WILL WIN: Sinners.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Sinners or Sentimental Value.
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Nothing for No Other Choice? It still stings. If I Had Legs I'd Kick You was also highly deserving. Eddington may have been divisive but it's aged like fine wine in only the past few months.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Yes, One Battle After Another is technically an adaptation, albeit in the loosest sense of the term. Since PTA took mild inspiration from Thomas Pynchon's Vineland, that frees it up to not compete against Sinners. It also makes it the frontrunner in its own lane against what would otherwise be tough competition. There is a chance that Anderson could pull off the screenplay-director-picture sweep, following in the footsteps of Bong Joon-ho and Sean Baker.
WHO WILL WIN: One Battle After Another.
WHO SHOULD WIN: OBAA or em>Train Dreams.
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Pillion, Die My Love, Wake Up Dead Man.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
It's KPop Demon Hunters. I mean, come on. Few things in pop culture, not just film, dominated 2025 as thoroughly as this movie. Do you know anyone aged between four and eighteen? Then the chances are you've heard the soundtrack to this thing on loop for MONTHS (shout out to my cousin and her kids.) Is it the best of the nominees in terms of pure craft? Probably not. Arco and Little Amelie are really stellar. But when we look back on 2025 in the ensuing decades, it is a year that will be defined in large part by KPop Demon Hunters. There's a reason it's going to be inducted into the Criterion Collection.
And 'Golden' is 100% winning the Best Original Song award. No apologies to Diane Warren.
WHO WILL WIN: KPop Demon Hunters.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Arco or Little Amelie.
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Given the dominance of anime in 2025, it's weird that we don't have nominations for the Demon Slayer or Chainsaw Man movies. Also, Ne Zha 2 made more money than anything in Hollywood last year so its absence feels pointed.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Fun fact: Four of the five nominated films in this category are distributed by Neon. Their attempts to juggle all these nominees over the season led a few big titles to be left by the wayside, like It Was Just an Accident. Critics started rallying around Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent, and you could see Neon pivoting alongside that. I'm obviously rooting for The Secret Agent, which I think has a strong chance, but so does Sentimental Value because of how well represented it is across the board. A lot of that movie is also in English and that may help voters who often get lazy with this category.
The Voice of Hind Rajab, the Tunisian entry about the Red Cross's efforts to save a young Palestinian girl from IDF gunfire, has faced a lot of political pushback for daring to tell a true story about a murdered child. Reports suggest that there's an active campaign against the movie, eager to dismiss it as antisemitic or full of lies. While its chances of winning Best International Feature are slim, in part because of this but also because it barely received a US release, I wanted to give it some attention. In terms of both craft and nerve, it's a brutal but important picture.
WHO WILL WIN: The Secret Agent.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Any of them, to be honest.
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Seriously, did Park Chan-wook kill someone's dog or something? No Other Choice, you shall be avenged.
