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Donald Trump Officially Endorses Roy Moore, but What Does That Mean Politically?

By Dustin Rowles | Politics | December 4, 2017 | Comments ()

By Dustin Rowles | Politics | December 4, 2017 |


Jackie-Earle-Haley-in-Little-Children.jpg

This morning, Donald Trump finally came out and admitted he was supporting Roy Moore for Senate in Alabama.

Roy Moore happily accepted his endorsement.

What does that mean? Well, it means that a known sexual harasser is supporting a known pedophile. It means that Trump, like Roy Moore, does not believe women.

But what does it mean politically? Well, let’s take a look at the numbers:

In polls pitting a generic House Democrat against a generic House Republican in the 2018 midterms, Democrats are leading against Republicans by a 12-14 point margin. If every district that voted Republican by less than 12 points swung to Democrats in 2018, the Democrats would gain 129 Congressional seats. In the incredibly unlikely event that happened, the Dems would control the House 323 to 111 seats.

That’s not going to happen. Even those with a generally unfavorable views of their own party still tend to support their own candidates, so let’s say that the Dems only get a 6 point swing: They still win 59 seats away from the GOP, and end up with a 253 to 181 advantage.

That’s probably not going to happen, either, right?

But, what if Republicans — who, remember, hold a 12-14 point disadvantage — just lost 3 points across the board? They’d lose 32 seats, and Democrats would hold a 226 to 208 seat lead in the 2019 House of Representatives.

Is that likely? Uh, yes. Very. In 2010, Republicans held a 10 point advantage over Democrats in the generic Republican vs. Democrat polls. They gained 63 seats. With a 12-14 point advantage, it should follow that we’d gain at least as many as the Republicans did with a 10 point advantage.

As always, these things come down to Independents. I mean, look: If Democrats don’t like their candidate, they’ll boot him and vote for another Democrat. If Republicans don’t like their candidate, they’ll just vote for him anyway (see Roy Moore). Only 37 percent of the country holds a favorable view of Democrats. Only 30 percent hold a favorable view of Republicans. Party vs. Party, Democrats hold a slight advantage. However, among Independent voters, the latest polls shows they disapprove of President Trump by a 63 to 31 margin.

It’s the Independent voters who will make the difference, and if they are rejecting Trump 63 to 31 percent, how many more will abandon the GOP if they support Roy Moore? I mean, in the days following the revelations that Roy Moore is a pedophile, 61 percent of Independents thought he should drop out. If 63 percent of Independents disapprove of Trump, and 61 percent of Independents think Roy Moore should drop out, Trump endorsing Roy Moore is only going to solidify the independents against Trump, and against the GOP, who will basically be using the Senate to harbor a child predator.

So, what does it mean when Donald Trump endorses a pedophile? It means that more Independents will dislike him. It means that some Republicans will lose enthusiasm for him. It means that gaining 60 seats in the 2018 midterms is not only a possibility, but it’s a realistic one, even if Roy Moore wins, because Roy Moore will win — Republicans hold a 16 point advantage over Democrats in Alabama.


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