What Are the Chances of a Second Season Based on First-Week Ratings for this Week's New Shows?
The network began trotting out their new shows in earnest this week, and some fared well, while many others did not. Based on preliminary ratings, reviews, social media presence and general hunches, here are the odds that this week’s premieres will land a second season.
Minority Report (Fox): 5 percent likelihood of a second season, based on very poor ratings (last in its timeslot), and generally tepid reviews.
Blindspot (NBC): 75 percent likelihood of a second season, based on massive premiere numbers (following The Voice), in spite of overall bad reviews.
Life in Pieces (CBS): 80 percent chance of a second season, based on huge numbers (thanks to a Big Bang Theory lead-in) and generally positive reviews (I liked it very much).
The Muppets (ABC) — 80 percent chance of a second season. Strong ratings, middling reviews, but I think even the disappointed critics will stick around to see it get better (it also boosted numbers for sophomore series Fresh off the Boat).
Limitless (CBS) — 55 percent chance of a second season. Generally middling to bad reviews, but fairly solid ratings numbers, although it didn’t do so hot in the 18-49 demo, which is typical of CBS.
Scream Queens (Fox) — 85 percent likelihood of a second season. Disappointing overnight ratings, but a nice boost on an encore play Thursday and it will likely play well on DVR, plus it has a huge social media presence.
Best Time Ever (NBC) — 50 percent likelihood of a second season. Fairly bad reviews, and a rejection of the format from critics. However, the ratings numbers have been decent, so far, and I could see this being used to plug in holes in the mid-season schedule in subsequent seasons for NBC.
Heroes Reborn (NBC) — 35 percent likelihood of another season. Only decent ratings for the premiere, with many tuning in only out of curiosity. In fact, ratings dropped over the course of the premiere fairly significantly. Doesn’t seem to be a lot of passion for it, and I could easily see Reborn begin to quickly shed viewers like the first time around.
The Player (NBC) — 10 percent likelihood of a second season. Bad reviews, very bad ratings.
Rosewood (Fox) — 50 percent likelihood of a second season. Remarkably bad reviews, but very solid ratings, thanks to the Empire lead-in. Will it hold, though?