I understand that people aren’t all that interested in Emmy predictions anymore, but we’re a pop-culture site and the Emmy Awards air this Sunday (please come back for the Courtney’s liveblog, which is significantly more fun than predictions or the show itself) so I feel obligated to trot out some quick thoughts on who should win and who will win. Please do not use my advice to fill in your Emmy ballots. Besides, I know none of you actually have Emmy ballots, because that’s not really a thing for this show.
Better Call Saul
Game of Thrones
House of Cards
Orange Is The New Black
Should Win: Better Call Saul or Mad Men (tie!)
Will Win: Game of Thrones, because Emmy voters are populists.
Best Actor — Drama
Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey
Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
Kyle Chandler, Bloodline
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Should Win: Odenkirk, for completely transforming a weaselly comedy relief character into a fully-dimensional sympathetic one.
Will Win: Jon Hamm, and after all these years without a win, I’d want to vote for him, too.
Best Actress — Drama
Claire Danes, Homeland
Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder
Taraji P. Henson, Empire
Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
Elizabeth Moss, Mad Men
Robin Wright, House of Cards
Should Win: It’s a tough call between Moss and Maslany, but Moss, because Orphan Black had a down season and voters don’t actually watch that show. They just felt berated into nominating Maslany by the Internet (as it should be!)
Wil Win: Henson, because everyone watched and loved Empire. Sorry, Elisabeth.
Best Supporting Actor — Drama
Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul
Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline
Jim Carter, Downtown Abbey
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Michael Kelly, House of Cards
Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
Should Win: The toughest pick of the Emmys this year for me, and it comes down to Banks and Mendelsohn. All else even, I’d give it to Mendelsohn, but only because he had substantially more screen time on Bloodline, while Banks had only one feature episode.
Will Win: Ben Mendelsohn.
Best Supporting Actress — Drama
Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey
Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black
Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Should Win: Lena Headey, for that walk of shame alone.
Will Win: Hendricks, another sentimental favorite going out with a win.
Parks and Recreation
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Should Win: It’s an impossible category! Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt slightly edges out Silicon Valley and Veep in my mind, but if it were going up against the first season of Silicon Valley, I’d give it to the HBO show.
Will Win: Parks, for the sentimental win (and I’ll be happy with that).
Best Actress — Comedy
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer
Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie
Should Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus. She is unreal, even if I want Poehler to win, Louis-Dreyfus is honestly the best comedic actress on television.
Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus. She always does.
Best Actor — Comedy
Anthony Anderson, Blackish
Louis C.K., Louie
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Will Forte, Last Man on Earth
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
William H. Macy, Shameless
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent
Should Win: Jeffrey Tambor. Louie was the better show, but Tambor put on the better performance.
Will Win: Tambor, because he deserves it and because it’s a trendy pick.
Best Supporting Actress — Comedy
Niecy Nash, Getting On
Alison Janney, Mom
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
Gaby Hoffman, Transparent
Mayim Bialik, Big Bang Theory
Jane Krakowski, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Anna Chumskly, Veep
Should Win: McKinnon, who basically made an otherwise unwatchable season of SNL watchable.
Will Win: Janney. The Emmy voters love her, and for good reason.
Best Supporting Actor — Comedy
Keegan-Michael Key, Key & Peele
Andre Braugher, Brooklyne Nine-Nine
Adam Driver, Girls
Titus Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Ty Burell, Modern Family
Tony Hale, Veep
Should Win; Braugher is ridiculously good, especially so for a guy who has been a dramatic actor all his life.
Will Win: Burgess, and I’m OK with that, too.
The Colbert Report
The Daily Show
Jimmy Kimmel Live
Last Week Tonight
The Late Show
The Tonight Show
Should Win: Letterman and Stewart are sentimental favorites (although, I believe Stewart has another year of eligibility technically, since his show didn’t end until after the cut off point on June 1st), but I don’t see how you can overlook the superiority of Last Week Tonight.
Will Win: Last Week Tonight, assuming the voters don’t have their heads up their asses.
Best Animated Series
Over the Garden Wall
Should Win: Rick and Morty or Bojack Horseman, which aren’t even nominated.
Will Win: Joanna says that Over the Garden Wall is amazing, so I’ll go with that one.
(Limited Series categories are not included, as I have not seen enough of those to weigh in).