'Sinners' Lands a Distinction No Other Horror Movie Has Ever Achieved

Sinners was a huge hit over the weekend, earning $45 million domestically and $61 million worldwide. That apparently wasn’t enough for headline writers in the trades, some of whom are framing it as a disappointment compared to the $90 million budget, despite the fact that it’s actually marginally better than the opening for Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, which had the same $90 million budget. Even Ben Stiller finds that framing absurd.

Of course, Tarantino’s movie eventually legged out a $142 million domestic gross, thanks in large part to great word of mouth. Typically, the best indicator of strong word of mouth comes from Cinemascore, which surveys film audiences to rate their viewing experiences with letter grades and forecasts box-office performance accordingly. An “A” grade is a relative rarity, most often reserved for Pixar features and faith-based films with audiences predisposed to loving them before they even arrive in theaters.

You know what has never received an “A” grade from Cinemascore? A horror movie. That is, until now. Ryan Coogler’s Sinners is the first horror film ever to accomplish that feat. It’s such a rarity that, dating back to when surveys began in 1979, no horror film until The Conjuring had ever even achieved an “A-.” Cinemascores are so notoriously tough on horror flicks that CinemaScore’s Harold Mintz once said, “An F in a horror film is equivalent to a B− in a comedy.”

As of 2017, only 19 films had ever received an “F” and it appears that 15 of them were horror flicks (along with one of the best films of the 2010s, Killing Them Softly).

So, Sinners is loved by critics (98 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and audiences (an A on Cinemascore and a 97 percent RT audience score), and yet Variety remains skeptical of its ability to turn a profit, nevermind that a $45 million domestic opening for an original film is already an achievement in itself.

Add to that the fact that, as of 2014, a movie with an “A” Cinemascore had a 3.6 multiplier, meaning it usually earned 3.6 times its opening weekend. Should that hold here, Sinners would earn $162 million domestically. Of course, horror films almost never hold well in their second weekends, but also, horror films almost never receive “A” Cinemascores. And there are plenty of horror films that buck those box-office trends, like It or A Quiet Place, which had an A- Cinemascore, opened to $50 million, and legged out $188 million domestic. That seems achievable for Coogler’s Sinners, too.

But, you know, the guy from The Office directed that one, and this one just comes from a guy who directed two massively successful Black Panther movies and launched the Creed franchise.