Is 'Captain America: Brave New World' a Box-Office Hit? Or a Flop?

In May 2022, I skipped Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness on opening weekend, telling myself I’d catch it the next week. Then I figured I’d watch it when it hit Disney+. Three years later, I still haven’t seen it. Nor did I watch any of the next four MCU films. Turns out, I wasn’t alone—this was around the time the MCU started its nosedive, culminating in the box-office disaster that was The Marvels. Ironically, I actually did see that one, mostly to support Brie Larson and because I genuinely loved Iman Vellani’s Ms. Marvel.

Skipping an MCU movie for the first time in 15 years felt weirdly liberating. I had finally freed myself from the pressure to see every single one. Now, if I’m interested, I’ll go—like I did with Deadpool & Wolverine and plan to with Thunderbolts. But I skipped Captain America: Brave New World because it didn’t appeal to me, and guess what? The world didn’t end. I’m a middle-aged man! The MCU can’t tell me what to do!

After a string of disappointments, the whole “the MCU is dying” panic seemed to fade with the massive success of Deadpool & Wolverine. While some of the underwhelming box-office returns were due to franchise fatigue, I think audiences collectively decided: You know what? I’ll just watch the ones I actually want to watch. Generic, mediocre, or poorly reviewed MCU movies? Easy pass.

Which brings us to Captain America: Brave New World. It’s been out for a month, and we have a solid read on its box office. It’s not a Deadpool-level juggernaut (over $1 billion) or even a Guardians 3-sized hit ($850 million worldwide), but it’s also not The Marvels-tier bad ($206 million worldwide). That said, it’s still unlikely to even match Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’s disappointing $476 million haul.

Right now, Brave New World sits at $371 million worldwide ($190 million domestic) and will probably top out around $400 million. That might be fine—a modest underperformer—if its budget were the $180 million Marvel claims.

But that’s probably not the real number. Our old friend Joanna Robinson has reported (based on her sources) that the budget is closer to $380 million after extensive reshoots. If the movie barely makes back its budget—if it even does—and Marvel has to split those earnings with theaters, that turns Brave New World from a mild disappointment into a full-blown flop.

What does that mean for the MCU’s future? Not my problem. But if Thunderbolts and this summer’s Fantastic Four don’t turn things around, next year’s Russo Brothers-directed Avengers: Doomsday could be in trouble—especially given the $320 million bomb, The Electric State, that the Russos are about to drop on Netflix this weekend.