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The Highest Grossing Films in the Summer of 2011

By Dustin Rowles | Posted Under Seriously Random Lists | Comments (21)



ugo-thor_288x288.jpg

Christ, people. If you like blockbusters, there has never been a summer like what we’re expecting in 2011. Ever. If it were possible for Hollywood to save the American economy (and we do rank first in the world in film exports), then 2011 is the year it’s likely to do it. There is the potential for four billion dollar movies (worldwide), and domestically, probably eight to ten $200 million movies. Americans are going to be spending a lot of time in theaters come next summer, and while there will certainly be losers, it’s gotta be a good time for the industry as a whole, which is one of the few that’s managed to (mostly) buck the current recession the country is mired in.

However, Jon Favreau — who is directing Cowboys and Aliens, starring Harrison Ford, Daniel Craig, and Sam Rockwell — suggested that, for filmmakers and studios, it’s going to be a “blood bath.”

It’s Omaha Beach, it’s going to be a blood bath. There’s never been a summer like this next summer. It’s going to be bloody [for filmmakers and the studios]. As we were sticking thumb tacks in a calendar we realized that this is going to be looked back upon as Omaha Beach … There’s not a weekend where there won’t be teeth on the floor. The audience wins but it’s going to be rough for people making these movies. Then there was the big rush to 3D, so you have all of these people fighting for a limited number of screens and to get the 3D done, since most of these are hybrids or conversions, so this is a technology that is still in the relatively early stages and there’s going to be a lot of blood pressures going up in the months ahead. (Source: LAT)

It probably will be a nerve-wracking summer for filmmakers and studios, but when there’s as many options as there will be in Summer 2011, it’s my guess that — rather than pick and choose — most audiences will see multiple films. Cannibalism has never been a major problem for Hollywood; avid moviegoers will make time to see two movies in a weekend, if there good enough reason (or enough hype) to justify the trip, even if it means paying extra for 3D. Some of these movies, of course, will be horrible, but that’s never stopped audiences from attending huge studio films.

It’s kind of an exciting time, especially if you’re into geek movies. Below are my tentative domestic box-office predictions of the top 15 movies of the summer of 2011 (and there are plenty more blockbusters due out in the fall and winter of 2011). Not included in the top 15 are several other movies that have decent box-office prospects, including Tom Hank’s Larry Crowne, Jonah Hill’s The Sitter, Conan 3D, Kevin James’ The Zookeeper, Emma Stone’s Friends with Benefits, Jon Krasinski’s Something Borrowed, Ryan Reynolds’ The Change-Up, Ben Stiller’s Mr. Popper’s Penguins, or Paul Bettany’s Priest (In 3D), plus one or two other potential sleepers that haven’t even been announced yet.


15. Rise of the Apes (James Franco’s Planet of the Apes prequel): $137 million.

14. Cowboys and Aliens (Jon Favreau’s sci-fi western with Daniel Craig and Harrison Ford): $145 million

13. The Smurfs (in 3D) (Big-screen adaptation of The Smurfs with Neil Patrick Harris and Hank Azaria): $152 million.

12. Fast Five (Fast and Furious sequel to the $155 million fourth film): $160 million

11. Kung Fu Panda 2: The Kaboom of Doom: Kung Fu Panda sequel to the $215 million hit): $175 million.

10. Green Lantern (Ryan Reynold’s superhero franchise): $182 million.

9. X-Men First Class (X-Men prequel): $190 million.

8. The Hangover 2 (The Hangover sequel to the $277 million hit): $201 million.

7. Super 8 (J.J. Abrams’ directed, Steven Spielberg produced sci-fi flick): $210 million.

6. Captain America (another Marvel movie): $245 million.

5. Thor (the summer blockbuster opener, one of the few movies that has two weeks mostly to itself in the blockbuster market): $260 million.

4. Cars 2 (sequel to the $250 million original): $280 million

3. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (3D) (sequel to the $305 million third film): ($295 million):

2. Transformers 3: (Sequel to the $405 million second film): $387 million.

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows (Part Two in 3D) (final installment in the franchise): $400 million










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Comments

That line-up, with some caveats, certainly beats this summer's blockbuster offerings. Predicting actual numbers is a fool's errand, though. But if you're within a couple million bucks on 5 out of 10, I'll give you a pat on the back. Via the interwebz, however that works.

Posted by: RobP at November 3, 2010 1:07 PM

There's probably some kind of very complicated symbols made out of parenthesis and asterisks to denote an interwebs back pat. Begin beta tests.

Posted by: Feelish at November 3, 2010 1:26 PM

I wonder why you're so confident about super 8. Is anyone even in it? We saw with undercovers this fall that jj's name isn't much of a draw in and of itself.

Posted by: Max at November 3, 2010 1:34 PM

What a bunch of fucking bullshit. Not the list itself, but the movies in it.

15. Rise of the Apes
14. Cheese food
13. Cheese food
12. Cheese food
11. Cheese food
10. Cheese food
9. Cheese food
8. Super 8 or cheese food
7. Cheese food
6. Cheese food
5. Cheese food
4. Cheese food
3. Cheese food
2. Cheese food
1. Cheese food

Posted by: sansho1 at November 3, 2010 1:43 PM

I had no idea a prequel to Planet of the Apes was on the docket. I don't care, but I also had no idea.

I think your top 3 is likely correct with some possible position swaps, but I'm calling "Cowboys & Aliens" as the big breakout smash this summer. Hangover 2 will not be the success the first was, it has the smell of desperation to it. Of course, that never stopped the Fokkers movies.

That is a hell of a list of major movies. Favreau is right, there are going to be careers broken in half on that field. Super 8 and Kung Fu Panda would be better off moving to the fall. I have little interest in Thor and Captain America but I said the same about Iron Man and that was surprisingly good so who knows. But the super hero vein is going to run dry eventually and someone is going to be left holding a 300M dollar bomb.

Posted by: TylerDFC at November 3, 2010 1:57 PM

Looks like I need to start saving now since movies are what, $11 a ticket? Thanks for the heads up.

Posted by: SugarSweet at November 3, 2010 2:28 PM

Kung Fu Panda 2?! No shit really?!

Sweet.

Posted by: twig at November 3, 2010 2:39 PM

I'm curious as to why you think Kung Fu Panda 2 will do worse than the original, but Cars 2 will do better. Not disagreeing, just curious.

Posted by: Slizbomb at November 3, 2010 2:39 PM

oh. dear. there's only one film on that list that I want to see - Thor. And if I miss it, I won't care.

But nothing else...nothing. Usually I can get excited about one summer movie at least.

Posted by: miri at November 3, 2010 3:41 PM

15. Rise of the Apes~really? REALLY?
14. Cowboys and Aliens ~ this will kick ass or not
13. The Smurfs~who asked for this...no really the need to be neutered
12. Fast Five~next
11. Kung Fu Panda 2: The Kaboom of Doom: geuss the kids will be dragging me to this one
10. Green Lantern MEH
9. X-Men First Class (X-Men prequel)~I'll wait for the dollar theater
8. The Hangover 2~no interest
7. Super 8 could be good but it could be Cloverfield
6. Captain America~actually very excited for this one
5. Thor ~ and this one
4. Cars 2 ~ hopefully the kids won't hear about this till it hits video
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides ~ can't wait to see how a pirate ship jumps a shark
2. Transformers 3:Gouge my eyes out now please
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows ~ the made a percy jackson sequel?

Posted by: BigTodd at November 3, 2010 5:31 PM

I think there has a always been a trend with Hollywood: movies make money not just in spite of but perhaps because of failing economies. It was true during the Great Depression. People like going to movies. Especially when they're hopeless and depressed.

Posted by: Xteen at November 3, 2010 10:01 PM

1. Fast Five (Fast and Furious sequel to the $155 million fourth film): $160 million

Fixed that for you.

Posted by: BarbadoSlim at November 3, 2010 10:04 PM

Most of those look shit.

Posted by: Steph at November 4, 2010 6:50 AM

i'm with miri: there's not much on this list that i care about; i am curious about the sci-fi western and super 8; just a sci-fi geek over here; let's see if i can find out more info on them....

Posted by: splinter at November 4, 2010 8:21 AM

Sci-fi western and Deathly Hallows.

The rest... well, my kid will probably want to see the comic book ones (that's how many on this list? 3? 4? I don't want to scroll up) and -- gulp -- Transformers. (I missed the seminars on raising a child to have good taste, obviously. Terry adores the fucking robots, no matter HOW bad the films are. I guess it's something of a victory that he acknowledges their innate banality...)

Good news is, he turns 11 next month -- by next summer, living in this small town to which we've moved, I will be PERFECTLY comfortable letting him go by himself or with his friends. So, that's me, getting off the hook, finally, from movies I used to HAVE to go see by virtue of the Mommy factor.

Which goes DOUBLE for that Smurf and Panda shit -- kiss it goodbye; sorry for the rest of the grown-ups out there with progeny still lapping up this genre, but WHOOPEE! My kid has NO interest in it anymore.

Posted by: Maryscott O'Connor at November 4, 2010 10:41 AM

15. Rise of the Apes yes yes yes
14. Cowboys and Aliens -the hottest new theme, wild west and zombies and/or aliens. Will rock
13. The Smurfs - er no
12. Fast Five -would rather watch a Volvo ad
11. Kung Fu Panda 2: is that Jack Black er no
10. Green Lantern per-lease with the boys and their dumb toys/comics crap
9. X-Men First Class again, less male dreaming of super powers, more easvestrough cleaning
8. The Hangover 2 - Again, less guys in Vegas, more pay yr mortgage and grow up
7. Super 8 Speilberg's fav tool as a kid. With bucks like that it better rock
6. Captain America - again, grow up comic boy geeks
5. Thor - something about Norse gods has me saying yes yes yes
4. Cars 2 - more auto stuff? Fast fast cars oh woop de doo..no
3. Pirates of the Caribbean Per-lease Bruckheimer, this disnification of pirates is so formulaic. Next
2. Transformers 3 - grow up per-lease! Transform into a day job mm kay?
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows -that poor Daniel Radcliffe. Nail to the coffin, he will never live it down

Posted by: JaneSpotting at November 4, 2010 1:45 PM

Max - I will point out that there was another reason Undercovers didn't perform...it sucked.

JJ Abrams is fucking gold.

Also, white American probably didn't give Undercovers a whole lot of time either. My guess is that had it starred two attractive white people instead of two attractive black people, it would've performed better. Sad but true.

Posted by: Chris from Delaware at November 4, 2010 3:09 PM

May be the first time ever that I'm not even remotely excited about the new Pixar movie. That's sad.

Posted by: figgy at November 4, 2010 6:54 PM

To be fair, Undercovers is pretty much Abrams' first real crash-and-burn. Even the shows that people eventually fell out of love with, started out strong and had solid followings.

It also happened on NBC, which seems to bank on Outsourced and the Office over Community, so, fuck them.

I think once it gets closer to the release date, the Abrams viral marketing demon will get in full swing. Remember Cloverfield and the numerous rumors of LOST tie-ins, or the websites and videos offering details on the Japanese company the protagonist was taking a job with? The guy can generate ridiculous hype and interest on a budget.

Also, it's not summer 2011, but SuckerPunch looks like every heavy metal album ever all happening at once. Does it look like it'll have a lot of competition in March?

Posted by: Markus at November 5, 2010 9:46 AM

Umm...that's a fantastic summer? Is Pirates really going to do that well after the 2nd and 3rd atrocious movies were ill-received? Cars 2...I don't think there's been a Pixar movie that I've been LEAST excited for. Thor, nobody is going to see. Here's hoping Green Lantern and Captain America are actually good.

Harry Potter. If it's as good as these trailers are...its going to destroy Avatar. I SAID IT. Here's hoping anyway.

Posted by: Littlejon2001 at November 8, 2010 12:16 AM

So, Let's see...

15. Rise of the Apes, depends on the trailer
14. Cowboys And Aliens, Horrifically funny idea with a brilliantly done trailer, I'll go see it
13. The Smurfs, I don't believe you Katy Perry. First you marry an asshole like Russell Brand, and now this. C'mon, you're better than that.
12.Fast Five, lost interest when Michelle Rodriguez got killed off. Besides its not gonna premiere in the summer anymore
11. Kung Fu Panda 2, just not interested
10. Green Lantern, might go see it
9. X-Men: First Class, Like Kung Fu Panda 2, just not interested
8. Hangover 2, might go see it
7. Super 8, wasn't planning to see this cause of the whole Cloverfield fiasco, but they filmed this around my neighborhood so I'm definitely gonna see it.
6. Captain America, I'm gonna go see it
5. Thor, once again, I'm gonna go see it
4. Cars 2, this movie has hit a dead end
3. Pirates of the Caribbean, this franchise should've ended when Gore Verbinski was still around.
2. Transfo-HA HA HA, Can't pronounce the dam title without laughing. That's how awful Michael Ba-HA HA, dam, this movie is Gonna SUCK!
1. Harry Potter, it's too late for me to be interested in the franchise again, so I'm gonna pass on this one and wish it good luck.

Posted by: Cheesy at November 19, 2010 5:44 PM