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The 10 Biggest Oscar Snubs of the 2012 Academy Awards: A Pajiba Prediction

By Dustin Rowles | Posted Under Seriously Random Lists | Comments (47)



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The list below were predictions, written in December 2011. The official nominations are now in. Nine of the 10 predictions are accurate.

10. Man or Muppet, Bret McKenzie, The Muppets: Oh, you have got to be kidding me with this, Academy? How do you not nominate this song while nominating two (2) insipid Diane Warren songs from the Justin Bieber movie and Footloose? What a wonderful opportunity to have the Muppets perform at the Oscars, and you pass it up? Why? Is it because you didn’t want Billy Crystal to get his ass handed to him by Miss Piggy? Or is it just because you hate Muppets? And that’s why you didn’t ask them to host the show. God, I’m so angry right now.

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9. David Fincher, Best Director, The Girl with a Dragon Tattoo. Too dark? Too intense? Did it make you feel uncomfortable? And sad? Well, that was the goddamn point: Nobody does intensity better than David Fincher, and he killed it with what just happened to be a movie based on a very popular series of books. That didn’t bother you when you gave all those (undeserved) nominations to Peter Jackson and The Lord of the Rings so I don’t know why you got a bug up your ass about The Girl with a Dragon Tattoo.

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8. Winnie the Pooh, Best Animated Feature. It wasn’t the biggest box-office draw of the year, but it was sweet, touching, and simple, a rare 2-D flick in a field dominated by CGI. I know you have a hard-on for Pixar, and most years, you should: But Cars 2 had no business beating out Winnie the Pooh. Cars 2 was loud, crass, and incoherent, more of a commercial for merchandise than an actual film, while Winnie the Pooh was an honest to God delight.

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7. Michael Shannon, Take Shelter: I’m glad you decided not to nominate Leonardo DiCaprio for a fairly staid performance in J. Edgar, but while I thought Brad Pitt was phenomenal in Moneyball, it’s mostly because Brad Pitt is a phenomenal guy onscreen. He doesn’t need to act; he just needs to be himself. He makes enough money that he doesn’t really need the Oscar recognition, either. But Michael Shannon? Goddamn, that guy blew up the joint in Take Shelter. And he played kind of a crazy guy, which I thought that the Academy liked? No? You’d rather give another nomination to Brad Pitt for a “Brad Pitt” performance? All right. Suit yourself.

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6. Bridesmaids: Another year, another great comedy shut out because the Academy had its sense of humor surgically removed after Annie Hall. That sucks, too, because while Bridesmaids wasn’t the most important movie of the year, it was one of the most entertaining. And there are ten slots, for God’s sake. And you only used nine this year.

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5. Elizabeth Olsen, Best Actress, Martha Marcy May Marlene: The Academy decided to play it safe, as usual, in this category, and while I can’t argue with the nominations of Glen Close (Albert Nobbs), Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn), and Viola Davis (The Help), I feel like the Academy gave Meryl Streep the nomination for The Iron Lady because she’s Meryl Streep and Charlize Theron because she’s pretty (OK, fine. She was also very good in Young Adult but it wasn’t that demanding a role). Still, there has to be room for the most electrifying and stunning debut performance of the year. Don’t hold the fact that she’s an Olsen sister against Elizabeth.

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4. Senna, Best Documentary: Maybe there’s a technical reason you didn’t nominate Senna (or even put it on your short list), but whatever that technical reason might have been, ignore it. The best documentary of the year cannot be ignored simply because you have some sort of bias against foreign-language car racing docs. Admit it: You didn’t even watch it. You heard what it was about and refused to watch the screener. It’s too bad, because Senna was both compelling and devastating, a great documentary about a great character that deserved not only a nomination but a win.

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3. Jonsi, We Bought a Zoo, Best Original Score: I understand why you shut out We Bought a Zoo: It’s a great film, but there are no heavy-handed Oscar-baiting themes, like the holocaust or Helen Kellerism. Maybe it’s a little too nice for your taste. But there’s no excuse for ignoring Jonsi’s soaring and original score. If there were MVPs handed out for films, Jonsi’s score would win hands down. It transformed a good movie into a great, uplifting weeper. (On the other hand, nice job is recognizing Trent Reznor’s score for The Girl with a Dragon Tattoo).

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2. Andy Serkis, Planet of the Apes, Best Supporting Actor: Despite the fact that Fox pushed for a nomination, you refused to listen because the idea of a motion-capture gorilla being nominated for an acting award was a little too progressive for you. That’s a shame, because Serkis killed it, and gave us one of the most memorable performances of the year as an Ape.

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1. Drive, Best Movie: Oh, I see how you are, Academy. No love for Nicholas Winding Refn. Did Drive crawl under your skin and haunt you? Oh, you didn’t care for it when the Baby Gosling took a boot to that dude’s head and turned it into hamburger? Or was it the moodiness, the atmospherics, and the slow burn? I know how you feel about slow burns, Academy. You like feel good movies with simple moral messages, which is why you nominated The Help in 17,000 categories. Nice. Well, congratulations on failing to recognize the year’s most intense film. Assholes.










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Comments

Pre-emptive Oscar complaints! I love it!

Posted by: Joe at December 1, 2011 4:15 PM

Man or Muppet? is a very cleverly written song that ties so well together the parallel *struggles* that Walter and Gary are undergoing in the film. It's a really good thesis statement for the film. And, yes, it'll be ignored, but then I won't lose sleep over it.

Posted by: sars at December 1, 2011 4:15 PM

They probably snubbed Fincher for the same reason that Jackson didn't win anything until the 3rd Lord of the Rings movie. If you're going to do a trilogy, they're content to wait until the last one comes along to shower it with statues.

Posted by: geekchicohio at December 1, 2011 4:16 PM

Personally, I'd nominate Pictures in my Head over Man or Muppet. Though both will probably be ignored.

And is everyone serious with the Oscar nod suggestions for Young Adult? The trailers for that movie make it look like the lowest common denominator stupid comedy. It's not something I want to watch hung over on a Sunday morning, let alone something that looks Academy Award worthy.

Posted by: KatSings at December 1, 2011 4:24 PM

I don't get the Dragon Tattoo hype on the site. Most of us have read the book and seen the movie. I like Fincher a lot, I like Daniel Craig, but I'm not going to the theater to watch this story again. The previews alone show me that this is not deviating from the book and previous movie. Can someone explain to me why they are champing at the bit for this one when the similar situated "Let Me In" was blasted continuously up to it's release?

Olsen will get nominated. She won't win, but she'll get nominated. She's in last year's Jennifer Lawrence slot. Which should clue in young actresses that a fast track to success is pair up with John Hawkes. The Descendants will win best picture.

Posted by: TylerDFC at December 1, 2011 4:29 PM

TylerDFC, I'm looking forward to the US Dragon Tattoo because I really love many David Fincher's films and, unlike Let The Right One In, the original The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo trilogy left much to be desired. I think there's plenty of room for improvement, which Fincher could probably deliver, whereas LTROI was close to perfect in my opinion.

Posted by: sars at December 1, 2011 4:35 PM

Because David Fincher is a hell of a director, and it will make this story his own, with an angle, a style, a specific vision..when the original ones were just not that good. Simple as that.

Posted by: Claire at December 1, 2011 4:38 PM

Strange...when I picture car racing in any foreign land, I imagine a bunch of moneyed, bored people who go to these things because that's just what they do. When I picture car racing in America I imagine racist red-necks. Am I wrong about this?

Posted by: Freller at December 1, 2011 4:39 PM

sars: I guess I'm just not as blown away by the material as everyone else. I liked the book, I didn't love it. I felt the same about the moive but thought it was a competent adaptation. Also, I've since read "The Girl Who Played with Fire" and that went a long way toward cooling any ardor I felt toward the franchise. Was it in Larsen's will that no one was allowed to edit that book? That is the only explanation for the pages and pages of nothing happening except visits to cafes for bits of lunch and expressos.

Posted by: TylerDFC at December 1, 2011 4:40 PM

@Freller: No.

Posted by: Dustin Rowles at December 1, 2011 4:41 PM

TylerDFC, the books were like crack to me in a "guilty pleasure" way because it wasn't highbrow lit at all. I don't even know if I'd say they're *good* books, yet I was sucked in and really wanted to find out what happens to these characters, through all the sandwiches and espressos. Maybe they're like those Bourne books. They're really not great, but Bourne's a good movie character, and film rather than books might be a better medium for the character. I like the Salander character very much, too, and I think the books (at least the first one) would be a good basis for a movie. The original films just didn't produce that.

Posted by: sars at December 1, 2011 4:48 PM

minor nitpick: ceasar is a chimpanzee, right?

Posted by: mirco at December 1, 2011 4:53 PM

sars: I think Lisbeth Salander is a brilliant creation in search of a story that does her justice. That 180p section of "Girl Who Played With Fire" where she was not around was absolutely painful to get through. It was that section that Larsen's mostly cliched characterization and dialogue really became painful to get through. But I agree, Lisbeth is amazing and extremely compelling. I just wish the stories after "Dragon Tattoo" were better.

Posted by: TylerDFC at December 1, 2011 4:55 PM

Imo, what will undoubtedly be the biggest snub of all:

Chemical Brothers, Hanna.

I'm shedding a pre-emptive tear.

Posted by: The Dead Burger at December 1, 2011 5:01 PM

PLEASE NOMINATE BEST ACTOR ALIVE, MICHAEL SHANNON.
Seriously, I saw The Runaways the other day and it was a mostly forgettable performance but Mr. Shannon was the shit. He's often the best actor in star-studded acting fest type movies(Revolutionary Road). I love him and can't wait to see Take Shelter
Also, Elizabeth Olsen was fucking amazing as was the always flawless, John Hawkes.
But no, let's just have Leo-Brad-George and Meryl Streep Oscar bait again!

Posted by: severine at December 1, 2011 5:01 PM

*......it was a mostly forgettable MOVIE but....
D'oh! Why no edit button, Pajiba?

Posted by: severine at December 1, 2011 5:03 PM

I could not get through The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo. I tried, I really did. Numerous times. But I just couldn't get through it. Then I saw the trailer for the movie and it looks really good ( maybe it was The Immigrant Song that knocked me out) Gonna watch it without knowing what happens.

Posted by: kirbyjay at December 1, 2011 5:10 PM

I think whether I see another version of Girl with a Dragon Tattoo will depend a lot on how graphic the rapey scenes are. I thought the original was pretty good and I like Fincher, but god damn I cannot sit through that again.

Posted by: Socraz6 at December 1, 2011 5:14 PM

I really think I might cry if Bret McKenzie doesn't get recognized for any of his songs in The Muppets.
Those goddamn songs made me so happy after a couple of the most emotionally taxing days of my life. So much so that I taught myself Life's a Happy Song on the ukulele just so I could play it whenever I felt down again.
That, my friends, THAT... is the power of The Muppets. And Bret McKenzie. And Jason Segel (I just love them all, okay?)

Posted by: Lisa Bee at December 1, 2011 5:21 PM

Bridesmaids was not that good. I just saw it recently and maybe there was too much hype to live up to, but I wasn't impressed. I can't believe it was such a huge hit. Maybe I saw a different movie.

Posted by: Junierizzle at December 1, 2011 5:21 PM

I didn't think either the books or the first film were "all that", but the first film definitely deviated from the book and I'm interested to see how closely this film stays on track. It felt like some of the inherent message from the book was changed with the tweaks in the first film, particularly the way Salander meets Blomkvist.

As for comparing anyone's reaction to this film and another film, as I've seen done here a number of times, is just dumb. No one can know what another person's motivations for liking or disliking something and if you've been paying attention, it's not about being hip or fresh, it's about being jaded and pissed off.

Posted by: Protoguy at December 1, 2011 5:23 PM

Speaking of Andy Serkis in a motion capture role, I am STILL mad he didn't get a supporting actor nomination for The Two Towers or Return of the King. The fact that I'm an unapologetic LoTR fangirl is beside the point. Andy Serkis OWNED those two movies, and Gollum was easily one of, if not the, most compelling character in either of those movies, due in large part to Andy Serkis.

Which is all to say, I haven't seen Planet of the Apes, but I believe that his performance was probably excellent. And that if he DOES get nominated for that performance, I will assume that at least part of his nomination is the Academy apologizing for not nominating him for Gollum.

Posted by: GwenBear at December 1, 2011 5:31 PM

I love this kind of list it's a win-win for Rowles. If these films do get nominated he can say I said they were deserving long ago! If they dont he can bitch about it some more. Win-win.

Posted by: logan at December 1, 2011 5:56 PM

@Socraz6: I agree. I really like Fincher and would be interested in seeing his take, but I don't really want to sit through the rapey rapey again. It was, uh, way harsh in the Swedish version.

I actually saw Rise of the Planet of the Apes (I did!) and Andy Serkis fucking rocked that shit, harder even than Gollum, in my opinion. Was the movie good? Not really. Is Andy Serkis a genius? Hells yes.

Posted by: MM at December 1, 2011 6:10 PM

Some good predictions here. I'll put the over/under on number of snubs that come true here at 5.

For the record, I wasn't one of the ones bashing Let Me In. I have no problem with remakes. I did like the first of the movies in the original Millennium trilogy, but I thought the second and third ones left a whole bunch to be desired. I am a Fincher fan, and, yes, that "Immigrant Song" trailer hypnotized me. I guess I'm hoping that the American version of the story - assuming they go ahead with the rest of the movies - takes more liberties and creates a more satisfying narrative.

Maybe Senna has hope. Like the categories for the foreign language features and the shorts, Academy voters have to attend public screenings and sign in in order to even cast votes for those categories, which is a cool requirement, I think. It explains why there are sometimes surprise winners for those categories: the public perception of what is good does not always agree with the informed opinions of those that actually watch the films. Of course, the process that renders the nominations in the first place does depend upon schmoozing and watching the movie (often screeners provided by the producer), so it's entirely possible that anti-racing bias could keep it off the short list, as you say. If it does make that list, though, i.e., the step before the final five nominees are decided, it could succeed on its merits, because they do force those voters making that decision to watch a certain portion of that list and cast votes based only on what they've seen.

Posted by: DarthCorleone at December 1, 2011 6:14 PM

Martha Marcy May Marlene isn't even winning awards/nominations at indie ceremonies like it should be. It's too unpleasant to get enough support. Olsen's great, but it's such a quiet performance of mental health issues. They like big and screaming, not subtle, uncomfortable, and realistic. When was the last time the Academy nominated an actress for playing a damaged person in a non-comedy film? Girl, Interrupted?

Posted by: Robert at December 1, 2011 6:19 PM

Darthcorleone -

The documentary branch does a shortlist for movies that will compete for the nomination, and 'Senna' is not on it.

Posted by: Rebecca at December 1, 2011 6:46 PM

I liked "A Happy Song" better and I figure that's more likely to be the pick.

Posted by: Matt at December 1, 2011 7:22 PM

very clever!

Posted by: Tracey at December 1, 2011 7:35 PM

I watched Bridesmaids for the first time last week and it is AWFUL. NOT FUNNY and AWFUL. What is wrong with you people

Posted by: Whipple "Whip" Hoxworth at December 1, 2011 8:05 PM

Personally I think if anyone deserves an Oscar snub it's George Clooney. The Descendants isn't as great as the critics are saying mostly because Clooney's miscast. I think I'd rather see Pitt get a nomination again(and not win) than George win another Oscar for a decent movie that would have been better without him.

Posted by: eris at December 1, 2011 9:01 PM

Serkis needs to get one of those special Oscars like Shirley Temple got.

Gollum, King Kong and Caeser? How many actors have hit a trifecta like that?

He is redefining acting. Like Brando.

Posted by: The Mutt at December 1, 2011 9:05 PM

If they dont put Senna in they should at least put TT3d on. It draws you in slowly so that at the last race you are holding your breath for about 20 minutes. Crazy people, crazy story. I do think the 3d bit will put the oscar voters off though. Populist motion sickness inducing 3bloodyD. And the movie was shot with a Red One MX so all the 3D was put in post production. completely unnecessary in my opinion, probably another crappy decision by some exec somewhere up high.

Posted by: stofjas at December 2, 2011 12:04 AM

The academy is made up of old geezers like me, who have no idea what TT and 3D and MX and Red even mean.

They watch the movies on screeners.

So Merle Streep and Harrison Ford and movies about the Holocaust will continue to win for at least the next twenty years.

Posted by: The Mutt at December 2, 2011 12:11 AM

While I found Bridesmaids somewhat entertaining, it wouldn't deserve anything award-related, for the food poisoning sequence alone. Shit isn't funny.

Posted by: FabMax at December 2, 2011 5:21 AM

I know this is kind of silly but John Hawkes was a standout in Hardball

Posted by: kirbyjay at December 2, 2011 5:41 AM

The Mutt: Harrison Ford???!?!

Posted by: Caspar at December 2, 2011 5:57 AM

Poo is always funny. If you don't think so you can just GET THE HELL OUT

Posted by: Whorish Mouth at December 2, 2011 8:31 AM

If Pitt gets nominated, don't you think it'll be for "Tree of Life?" I know it wasn't a moneymaker like "Moneyball," but it's arty, and he's gotten some great reviews for it.

I also think Michael Shannon and Elizabeth Olsen will get nominated -- definitely Shannon (he'd better). I don't think "Bridesmaids" will, and I don't think it should (even though I liked it a lot) -- maybe in the screenplay category, though.

Posted by: jimbob at December 2, 2011 9:54 AM

DRIVE AS BEST FILM OF THE YEAR. I COULDN'T AGREE MORE!!!

Posted by: Jonas at December 2, 2011 1:54 PM

I'm predicting you're wrong on 10, 5 and probably 3...

Posted by: Sara Tonin at December 2, 2011 2:49 PM

Whoa, hold up on Best Animated Feature!!!

Now, I thoroughly enjoyed "CARS 2". I strayed away from the "Pixar standard" or "blatant commercialism" argument and found it to be a great film indeed. Pixar is still the most authentic film studio; when they make a shitty film, it will be obvious and "CARS 2" is not at all. And it will get the (deserved) nomination come February.

For me, the Oscar for Best Animated Feature is yes, between "RANGO" & "WINNIE THE POOH". People who make futile arguments for "TINTIN" have not realized that MoCap does not qualify for the Oscar at all.

Predix:
1.) "RANGO"
2.) "WINNIE THE POOH"
3.) "CARS 2"
4.) "KUNG FU PANDA 2"
5.) "RIO"

Posted by: BlueFox94 at December 2, 2011 7:45 PM

Feck you I LOVED the LOTR movies and I am not a sci fi nerd or a fan boy or any of those slots you need to fill to make you feel smug about people who love these movies. Seriously?

That said I love Craig and I love Fincher but why do you need to lump your disdain for the LOTR movies in with your manufactured ire about a non-snub you think might happen for GWTDT?

Just because it was big budget and a box office hit does not mean it was a bad or undeserving movie. Sheesh.

Also: The Oscars can go blow.

Posted by: klingonfree at December 4, 2011 10:05 PM

Dude, honestly, Bridesmaids was not that funny. There are other things on the list I can't agree with, but only because I have no first hand knowledge, but I sat through Bridesmaids, and giggled, slightly, at one or two parts. You need to not get so uptight about this, everything is bought and paid for months in advance.

Posted by: Bob at December 5, 2011 10:00 AM

Personally, I'd nominate Pictures in my Head over Man or Muppet. Though both will probably be ignored

p.s:if you interested, please check this exciting club for fun _seekcasual dot com_
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Posted by: kengao at December 7, 2011 12:40 AM

Bridesmaids suck. It basically was a 1 joke movie that boys around 6-8 would enjoy. There was no story amd no actress that stood out.

Posted by: nick at January 24, 2012 12:44 PM

I think its horrible that Leonardo DeCaprio was again overlooked. This guy is a great actor. What the hell is wrong with the academy? I saw Descendants=nice movie but certainly not Oscar material.

Posted by: matt at January 27, 2012 2:21 PM