Old School. Biblically Independent.
By Kayleigh Donaldson | Film | February 11, 2025
The general consensus of the current Oscar race is that it’s been a weak year. I wouldn’t say I necessarily agree with that assertion. While I’m all too used to my favourite films of any given year missing out on the big awards, and 2024 was no exception, this is still a season with some fascinating choices. Granted, we’re also in the midst of a total implosion of one of the contenders and some stan Twitter-led discourse that has helped to expose all manner of industry jackassery. It’s been a messy time. Perhaps that’s why we’ve ended up with this notion that the current fight for Best Picture is more up in the air than it’s been in years.
The Academy Awards is still close to a month away and by this point in time the big categories are usually, if not entirely locked down then close enough to it that surprises feel rare. We can all feel secure in calling the Best Supporting Actor category for Kieran Culkin, for example, and Demi Moore is the Best Actress frontrunner with the only possible spoiler to her victory being Fernanda Torres (but if that were to happen we would still gasp.) This isn’t an Oppenheimer year. Best Picture isn’t in the bag for any of the ten nominees. At least, that’s what the discourse says. So, who is currently leading the pack?
The nominees, for those who have forgotten, are Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, and Wicked. Of that pack, I would say there are perhaps four films that feel like tangible frontrunners. Okay, maybe three, because of the Emilia Perez of it all.
Actually, let’s just start there. Is Emilia Perez still a viable Best Picture frontrunner? Netflix certainly hopes so. They spent a lot of money on acquiring the film and probably more to sell it as their first prospective Oscar sweep. It had the makings of a viable winner for months: A big hitter at Cannes, critically popular, a musical, a socially conscious story. It’s the kind of film that could easily be sold as ‘audacious.’ But it’s also a bad movie with a ton of controversy surrounding its portrayal of both the trans and Mexican communities, and its lead is a massive racist. She has finally decided to shut up after a solid period of egotistical self-aggrandizing, but Netflix is acting as though the damage is done. They’re reportedly removing mentions of Karla Sofia Gascon from FYC ads and are no longer paying her expenses for campaigning. The most nominated film of the night is unlikely to go home empty-handed, if only because it has two Best Song nominees and people still seem to like Zoe Saldana, but I struggle to see it as a potential victor for Best Picture.
That leaves behind what I believe are the real frontrunners: Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave. The socially conscious reimagining of the screwball rom-com. The monumental drama of assimilation, creativity, and identity. And the crowd-pleasing Papal version of the courtroom thriller.
In any other year, I feel like Conclave would be considered a safe bet. It is the epitome of a consensus pick, a movie everyone likes enough to have at number three or four on their ballots, and can ride to victory based on that. It’s a very fun and sturdily made film that takes itself just seriously enough before remembering that it’s based on a book your dad read at the airport and it needs to act accordingly. Conclave is the kind of adult-oriented drama that we’re often told they simply don’t make anymore. It’s full of great actors who understand the assignment and can be watched by pretty much everyone. There’s even a political subtext to it all so you can feel smarter by watching it.
I’m not entirely ready to let go of Conclave as a Best Picture frontrunner, even though it’s not been as major an awards winner as I had initially predicted. If a season gets too controversial, there’s certainly an argument to be made for playing it safe with the main award. Maybe Ralph Fiennes is photocopying some incriminating details about Brady Corbet and passing them around at the Academy luncheon. It wouldn’t be an egregious winner. This isn’t Crash. Think of it more like a better CODA or a Spotlight. Nobody would be mad, even if they weren’t over the moon.
I’ve seen a lot of people describe The Brutalist as awards bait and that’s never made much sense to me. The Oscars is not a highbrow, hyper-elite organization. It’s very mainstream and straight down the middle to the nth degree. They like movies people see that make money, not niche indie titles that are seen exclusively by critics and don’t offer easy moral or artistic answers. Brady Corbet’s film, which is 215 minutes long and shot in VistaVision, was not an easy sell to the industry. He spent years trying to get it made. While critics adore it, it hasn’t been a box office smash (again, it’s super long and about Holocaust survivors being degraded in America.) And yet, it might be one of the biggest winners come Oscar night.
Adrien Brody is the Best Actor frontrunner and Corbet is in front for Director. There’s a lot of admiration and respect for this achingly personal and ambitious film that challenges the audience in ways that are a hard sell to the masses. But passion matters, and the people who love The Brutalist are vocal and fervent. Filmmakers like Paul Schrader have praised it. It won the prize for directing at the Venice Film Festival, as well as the Golden Globes for Best Drama, actor, and director. Corbet won a lot of support for his Globes speech where he spoke about the importance of both artistic freedom and in actually paying artists. If Best Picture is indeed an award for Most Picture as is often joked, then The Brutalist is the winner.
But then there’s Anora. Sean Baker’s reimagining of the Pretty Woman-esque ‘hooker with a heart of gold’ love story won the Palme d’Or at Cannes last year and was immediately crowned a frontrunner. In the months leading up to awards season, the hype around it seemed to quieten, perhaps a symptom of its September release date in a crowded period for contenders. Many saw it as out of competition when The Brutalist and Emilia Perez started sweeping up titles, but with the latter shunted to the side, Anora is back in the game.
It’s also picking up a lot of hardware. In short succession, it won the Critics’ Choice Award for Best Picture, the Directors Guild of America award, and one from the Producers Guild of America. While critics don’t get to vote for the Oscars — boo — the director and producers guilds are major in boosting those numbers up. Anora is another film that’s easy to love, easy to appreciate, and fun to rally around. If the Oscars is also about helping to shape how Hollywood is seen by the rest of the world, wouldn’t voting for a very modern indie darling give them some kudos?
Whatever the case, I think it’s fair to say that this hasn’t been a weak year. It’s been a bananas one, but also a season with some big swings that has made it, from my perspective as someone who covers stuff like this for a living, never boring. If I was a betting woman, I’d currently go for Anora, but for maximum chaos, I’m hoping for The Substance.
