A lot happened yesterday — Paul Manafort’s conviction, Michael Cohen’s plea deal, Duncan Hunter’s indictment — and at the time, as it always does during these moments, it likely felt like the Presidency was faltering, that there’d be no way it could survive under the weight of all this corruption.

One for the books. pic.twitter.com/SuAwts88Mg

— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) August 22, 2018

The morning after, in the new light of day, I think we can safely say that President Trump is not going anywhere soon. This is probably not going to end his presidency. It’s going to be one more drib — a gushing one — in the neverending drabs of bad news for this Presidency. It’s probably going to hurt him a lot in the midterms, seal the deal for House Democrats, give Senate Democrats a fighting chance, and ultimately make it very difficult or impossible for Trump to win re-election.

It feels a lot like the beginning of Trump’s lame-duck Presidency. Two years, five months more of bad tweets, hot air, and little in the way of accomplishment.

But he’s not going to be indicted. Sitting Presidents are not indicted, so impeachment will be the only recourse, and it will be talked about for months, but it won’t happen. While the House may think about impeachment proceedings if the Democrats take over — and they will certainly open up dozens of investigations — there’s still not going to be enough votes in the Senate to impeach, not unless the Republicans who survive the midterms finally decide — with two years until the next round of elections — to abandon the sinking ship. Hopefully, Mueller will provide them with enough incentive to do so.

In the meantime, the media is just going to pummel Trump. Republicans are going to deflect. We’ll probably see some more Trump cronies go down. Democrats are going to pussyfoot, and Rachel Maddow is going to pounce (Maddow will be the real winner in all of this!) It’s a neverending game that won’t stop until January 2020. Maybe.

But I’ll say this: “Oh, it wasn’t that bad, everyone does it” is not a good look for the Republicans right now. Or, “What’s the big deal? All he did was pay off a porn star!” Is that the defense they’re going to take to the midterms? Because, by all means.

WSJ Ed Board: “The Cohen and Manafort convictions raise the stakes for Mr. Trump and his Presidency, but voters may want to see more than evidence about payments to a porn star to overturn the results of a presidential election." https://t.co/UtqVNdbBeS

— Alexandra Jaffe (@ajjaffe) August 22, 2018

A preview of the various ways in which some on the right will dismiss the Cohen guilty plea. pic.twitter.com/VKmffgxeEx

— Sonny Bunch (@SonnyBunch) August 22, 2018

And if you’re wondering, this is the home page of Fox News right now.

And this is what they’re talking about on Fox and Friends.

YOU PEOPLE LOST YOUR SHIT WHEN MICHELLE OBAMA SUGGESTED THAT YOUR KIDS SHOULD EAT A FUCKING CARROT ONCE IN AWHILE https://t.co/m1upoyrPMt

— The Volatile Mermaid (@OhNoSheTwitnt) August 22, 2018

And this is what Trump is talking about.

Trump, mid-rally, goes off on a tangent on what a great turkey his mother made for Thanksgiving. Said it took eight hours to cook and was "the greatest turkey you'd ever have." Unclear why he is talking about his mother's turkey.

— Josh Dawsey (@jdawsey1) August 22, 2018

So, you know: It’s business as usual.

If anyone is looking for a good lawyer, I would strongly suggest that you don’t retain the services of Michael Cohen!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 22, 2018

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