At least where it concerns the House of Representatives, the polls are looking good for Democrats. Nate Silver suggests there is an 85 percent chance that Democrats will win the House, which is better than the 71 percent chance that Nate Silver gave Hillary Clinton in 2016. So, at least we’ve crossed that threshold, and while Democratic House candidates will have to grapple with voter suppression and gerrymandering, at least the Electoral College is not in play there.
The Senate is not looking as hot. Silver gives Democrats about a 20 percent chance of taking back the Senate, and it would require that Democrats not only hold their Senate seats in red states but pull some pretty big upsets in places like Texas and Tennessee.
There are some more promising signs: Democratic enthusiasm is up, young voters might actually turn out this year, and we’re dealing with a historically unpopular President.
However, what we know — or think we know — about these races comes from polls, and I am really skeptical of polling these days, especially after having watched the NYTimes live polling of Maine’s 2nd District last night. They’re not done yet, but look at this:
Calling went until I believe 9 p.m. last night, and as you can see, only 168 people out of 5,625 answered their phones, and I had no idea the percentages were that low. It means, basically, that all polling is based on a very small sample of people who answer their phones. Who are these people in 2018 who answer their phones at 9 p.m. when it’s an unrecognizable number? It’s certainly not me, although I guess the question is: Who is more likely to answer their phone? A Democrat or a Republican? A young voter or an old voter? The early results in that poll have me a little concerned because it shows that the Democrat Golden is up handily, but that’s a very conservative district, so either Democrats are answering their phones at a higher rate than Republicans, or the blue wave is definitely going to hit the one conservative Congressional district in Maine. But then again, who knows? It’s a weird district. Trump won there by 10 points, but Obama won there by almost 9 points.
Healthcare is certainly a big issue in that district, as it is in almost every race right now, and pre-existing conditions seems to be the issue. Democrats are hitting the Republicans hard on this issue, but I’m not sure they’re hitting them hard enough. Almost every single Republican voted to end Obamacare, which would have in effect ended protections for people with pre-existing conditions, and the folks in the House celebrated it on the White House lawn. They yucked it up. They brought out kegs. Every Democrat running against a House incumbent should be running an ad with featuring Trump and the GOP celebrating what they thought would be the end of Obamacare. Look at these smug assholes:
That should be enough to inspire the mob, and forget the polls, the mob is exactly what we need to show up on election day. “You don’t hand matches to an arsonist, and you don’t give power to an angry left-wing mob, and that’s what they’ve become,” Trump said at a rally over the weekend. Grab your goddamn matches folks. We gotta burn the motherf—-ing House down.
“I need your help this Election Day, November 6, to stop the radical Democrat mob from trying to take it away,” Trump said. “And they’re going to try and take it away.”
You are damn right we are. We no longer want these people making choices about healthcare, because they are desperate to kill preexisting conditions to pay for that tax cut for the rich that is currently responsible for a 17 percent jump in the federal deficit in 2018, a deficit that we all pay for, eve though it’s the wealthy who benefit from the tax cut. If the GOP increases their numbers in the Senate and holds the House, Obamacare is over. Coverage for those with pre-existing conditions is over. This will be the scene of Republicans basically celebrating ending coverage for pre-existing conditions for 82 million Americans.
The mob is angry, and the mob needs to ignore the polls and get our asses into voting booths on November 6th.