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Let's Talk about the Potential Indictment of TFG (Obligatory)

By Dustin Rowles | Politics | March 20, 2023 |

By Dustin Rowles | Politics | March 20, 2023 |


Mentally and emotionally speaking, not talking about, writing about, or thinking about TFG (The Former Guy) is good for all of us — grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, etc. But purportedly, TFG’s indictment is nigh, which is too big to ignore, although I am very tempted.

Why is he being indicted? For hush money payments he made to porn star Stormy Daniels to keep her quiet ahead of the 2016 election, which may have broken campaign finance laws. The charge here is likely to be related to falsifying business records.

Is the case strong? There is apparently voluminous evidence against him from the likes of Daniels and his former fixer, Michael Cohen, who pled guilty in 2018 to one count of making an excessive campaign contribution at the request of TFG for the principal purpose of influencing an election. TFG has implicated himself on social media, as well. Also, because he has spoken about a similar case against John Edwards many years ago, TFG will not be able to plead ignorance on this.

When will he be indicted?. Although it increasingly looks likely that he will be indicted, we don’t actually know when or even if it will happen. A grand jury has not even yet voted to indict him, and is apparently hearing one more witness today before voting. They are, nevertheless, preparing:

Will there be a civil war? — TFG believes that he will be indicted and he has demanded on Truth Social that his followers protest on Tuesday. So, far, there’s not a lot of activity on that front because his followers 1) don’t believe that protesting will help, and 2) believe that it’s a sting operation meant to put targets on the backs of TFG supporters — this is, in fact, what Marjorie Taylor Greene believes. (Sometimes, lunatic conspiracy theories work for the good of humanity). Other TFG supporters are reluctant to protest because TFG did nothing to help them when they were arrested on January 6th and they don’t want to get burned again.

Will an indictment prevent TFG from running for President? No. Although, his mug shot probably won’t help his campaign.

What is the political fallout? Look: Of all the things that TFG should be arrested for, this is not particularly high on my list. I would much rather let the Georgia grand jury take care of its business first because that is a far more serious charge. But we’ll take what we can get.

The Republicans are at least going to attempt to make political hay out of it, using it to characterize Democrats as “radical leftists” who engage in “political prosecutions” like “third-world countries,” which is barely veiled racism. Personally, I tune that out because it’s like a record on a loop. Joe Biden has nothing to do with this, but it won’t stop the Republicans from trying to pin it on him. I still think it’s insane and misguided to try and characterize an 80-year-old centrist man as a radical leftist, because who the hell is buying that? The guy likes trains, eats ice cream, and loves his grandkids. I will also remind everyone that the election is still around 19 months away. This is one week. If past elections are any indicator, little of this will be an issue come November 2024. The news cycle turns over daily.

It’s a little more interesting on the Republican side because TFG is doing his best to use his impending indictment against Ron DeSantis, who has been quiet while most of the other Republican candidates (or potential candidates) have spoken out against the potential indictment. DeSantis could have to play a role in extraditing TFG from Florida to New York, but we all know that’s not going to happen. The only play TFG really has is to give himself up, because extradition and perp walks will not do the man any favors. Nevertheless, TFG’s allies have painted DeSantis as complicit in his silence.

Ahead of the primary, it’s just one more way that the Republican party is going to be split, which theoretically helps Biden in the long term.