It’s been 13 months since Donald Trump was elected to the White House. It’s been 11 months since he was inaugurated. Isn’t that long enough? Can’t we all just agree that we’ve had about enough of this? Is there any reason to believe this will end anytime soon?
It’s the weekend after Thanksgiving, and as we head into the holidays, I’m going to put on my optimist hat, and while wearing said hat, this is how I see it: The Senate will be voting on the GOP tax plan soon. Currently, there are about 6 Senators on the fence: Susan Collins, John McCain, Ron Johnson, Bob Corker, Jeff Flake, and Jerry Moran. The GOP needs at least three, unless this runs into early next year and Doug Jones is elected, in which case the Senate can only lose two.
I don’t know why, but the consensus in the media is that the GOP will ultimately get this done, although it may take a lot more changes before it passes (the media also believed that the Obamacare repeal would ultimately get done, too. They were wrong).
I don’t know if it’s going to be passed or not. I do know that once it is passed or fails, the GOP has no more use for Donald Trump. This goddamn tax plan, as I understand it, is what’s keeping Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell from throwing Donald Trump out of a window. If Doug Jones wins in Alabama for God’s sake, I think the GOP will realize that Trump can’t help them. If Roy Moore wins in Alabama, I think the GOP will realize that their party is sunk (remember, I’m wearing my optimist hat!).
Next year is an election year. Nothing gets done in an election year. More Republicans will retire. More from both sides will resign over sex scandals. There will be several special elections next year (including, probably, one to fill Al Franken’s seat). Women (from both parties, honestly) will be in the driver’s seat. Women in suburbia will hold the key to every major election. Everyone is going to run as far the hell away from Donald Trump as they can, because he’s the guy who backed Roy Moore. Because he’s the guy with 16 sexual misconduct allegations leveled against him. Because he’s the guy who sympathizes with Nazis, and because he’s the guy who clearly hates Black people.
Meanwhile, Mueller is still circling the wagons. Ivanka and Jared will probably have left by early next year. Trump won’t have any of his people inside the White House anymore; he’ll just have his racist Chief of Staff — who clearly doesn’t like Trump — to protect him from himself. Trump will lash out. John Kelly will eventually quit. That, and the politics of the midterms will provoke Trump even more. He’ll say increasingly erratic things (how that’s possible at this point, I don’t know). He’ll continue to melt down. More people from his own party will distance themselves from him. He’ll point the blame toward those in his own party. It will create even more tension. This will become the face of the GOP:
The GOP will have or have not achieved their one legislative goal — tax reform. They’ll have no more major items on their agenda. They’ll turn their backs on the President. Trump will became a ranting, delusional, out-of-control lame duck. He’ll continue to make poor decisions. That 35 percent approval rating, which used to be a 40 percent approval rating, will turn into a 30 percent approval rating. The GOP will retire and/or defect. Donald Trump, Jr., Jared Kushner, and Michael Flynn will be looking at jail time. Ivanka may even be looking at jail time, too.
The whole thing crumbles, and either the country will hate the GOP for passing a horrible, unpopular tax bill, or they will hate the GOP because they can’t get anything done. 2018 will be the year of Women, who will take over Governors’ mansions, and Congressional seats at both the state and national levels in waves. Without any support within his own party, Trump will be impeached for obstruction of justice. Or he’ll quit. Or he will be completely neutered.
My optimist-hat-wearing self thinks it will all be over soon. 2018 is going to be a good year. We just have to get through the next month or two to get there.