Remember when Senator Kyrsten Sinema quit the Democratic party so that she could become an Independent because she knew that she’d get creamed in a Democratic primary? Sinema — the Maureen Dowd of Bari Weisses — might have been better off announcing that she would not be running for reelection because she had taken a job in the private sector, because that looks like where she’s going to end up.

According to a legit polling firm, Public Policy Polling (inasmuch as any polling firm is legit), Sinema’s chances at reelection running as an Independent are slim. More surprising and encouraging, at least to Democrats, is that an independent run would not necessarily hurt the chances of her Democratic opponent. Here are the results of the poll, via Jezebel:

In any likely three-way matchup among Sinema, [Rep. Ruben Gallego] and whatever Republican candidate wins their primary, Sinema appears to have virtually no chance of winning. If the GOP candidate is election denier Kari Lake, for example, the new PPP survey shows that Gallego would pull in 42 percent of the vote, Lake 35 percent, and Sinema just 14 percent. The numbers are similar if you plug Jim Lamon or Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb in as the Republican candidate.

What is most heartening about that poll to me is that — in Arizona, where statewide elections often come down to a handful of votes — Sinema seems to be eating into Republican vote totals more than the Democrat. It makes some sense: Gallego would get the most of the Democrats, while Sinema might pick up some Independents but also anti-Trump Republicans, which is not nearly enough to put Sinema over the top but seems to hurt the chances of someone like Kari Lake.

Meanwhile, Jezebel also reports that not only is Sinema getting trounced where she excels the most — in fundraising — but one-third of her donations come from just “five companies, including hedge funds and private equity firms, whereas 98 percent of Gallego’s donations were from donors who pitched in less than $100.”

In other words, the short answer to the question in the headline is: Not well!

Source: Jezebel