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Elizabeth Warren Surges In Iowa Poll, Along with Mayor Pete

By Dustin Rowles | Politics | June 10, 2019 |

By Dustin Rowles | Politics | June 10, 2019 |


We have been saying it for a while now — your electability concerns are trash — and as we near the Democratic campaign’s first debates in just two weeks, those “electability” issues seem to be a bigger issue now for Biden and Bernie, who find their support slowly waning, and candidates like Beto O’Rourke, of whom 60 percent of Democrats in Texas say he should drop out and run for Senate in 2020.

But Elizabeth Warren? She’s coming for you, Joe. From Politico, on a gathering of 19 Presidential candidates with Democratic leaders in Iowa:

The crowd reactions and engagement offered evidence of which candidates were still working on their introductions to Iowa activists and which had already established a rapport.

Warren barely got out the words: “I got a plan” before the crowd erupted. At one point they chanted “Warren!” “Warren!”

At that same event, Joe Biden — who did not attend — took some heat from his rivals. Mayor Pete suggested that now is not the time for the party to be “safe” or promise a “return to normal,” while Bernie echoed those sentiments, saying Democrats cannot succeed with a “middle ground strategy that antagonizes no one, that stands up to nobody and changes nothing.” Warren took aim at Biden’s cozy relationship to corporate interests and wealthy donors. “I’m not spending my time with high-dollar donors and with corporate lobbyists,” said Warren. “I’m spending my time with you. That’s how we build a grass-roots movement in America.”

Elizabeth Warren and her blistering campaign schedule has also given her momentum, much to the dismay of Sanders and his supporters: “Recent positive coverage of Warren’s campaign has especially rankled Sanders allies, according to a person familiar with the campaign’s inner workings who spoke on the condition of anonymity because that person was not authorized to speak publicly.”

And the results have been good. Biden may still be leading in national polls, but all the enthusiasm seems to be for Warren and Mayor Pete at the moment. In fact, check out this poll from Iowa yesterday:

Biden has actually fallen 8 points since December.

Not to discount the surge of Mayor Pete, who would be a very good Vice Presidential candidate for Warren, although he’s made some, uh, questionable choices of late:

This is also an interesting note from that Iowa poll:

It is important to keep in mind that in caucus states, voters’ second (or even third) choices can factor into the final result. If a candidate does not meet the minimum threshold of 15 percent support in a local precinct, each individual supporter has the opportunity to switch their support over to another candidate. With a field as large as the current one, it is very possible some caucus participants may well find themselves having to select another candidate to support. Because of this, the Iowa poll gave respondents the option to give three levels of possible support to each candidate: First choice, second choice, or “actively considering.”

When all three tiers of support (by those planning to vote in person) were added together, Biden again topped the list of candidates, with 61 percent possible support. However, Warren matched him exactly, with 61 percent possible support. Three other candidates manage to reach potential support of over 50 percent: Sanders at 56 percent, and Buttigieg and Harris, who each had 52 percent.

Point being: We don’t have to resign ourselves to the two old white guys due to “electability concerns.” Enthusiasm matters — a lot (see Obama, Barack 2008) — and enthusiasm at the moment seems to reside in Warren and Mayor Pete, while Bernie and Biden seem to have a firm grasp on the “Oh god! Please don’t let Trump win again, we’re gonna have to miserably white knuckle this one all the way to election day aren’t we” vote.

Meanwhile, I am this star-struck woman:

And here’s a valuable piece of intel:

Header Image Source: Getty