There Are Still Glimmers of Hope in This Year's Box-Office Wreckage

By Dustin Rowles | Film | June 6, 2024 |

By Dustin Rowles | Film | June 6, 2024 |

May was a bleak month for moviegoing, with total box office revenue of $570 million, down from $800 million in May 2023. Last year’s numbers were buoyed by the successful Marvel movie Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Disney’s live-action The Little Mermaid, and the tenth Fast & Furious movie. Those were legitimate blockbusters. However, this year’s disappointing numbers may have had more to do with Hollywood’s expectations for otherwise modest blockbuster films.

I’ve been watching the numbers of the May releases because I feel invested in the success of the moviegoing experience. Yes, while the box office was down overall, on an individual movie level, it wasn’t that bad, save for Furiosa, which unfortunately fell well short of not only expectations but also its budget ($116 million worldwide so far on a $165 million budget, plus marketing). But the other big releases haven’t done that poorly. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes has earned $340 million on a $160 million budget; the dismal The Garfield Movie has been very profitable ($160 million on a $60 million price tag); John Krasinski’s IF has had solid legs and may end up being an Elemental-like hit ($140 million on a $110 million budget and still performing well); and even The Fall Guy’s disappointing run hasn’t been a total disaster ($160 million on a $130 million budget). It may even break even(ish) at some point after VOD/digital and streaming/cable licensing are added in. It’s a great film and may have strong legs with home viewers.

When we look at the overall landscape, there have been some bombs this year — Argyle earned $100 million on a $200 million budget and Madame Web earned $100 million on a $100 million budget — but those movies were bad. There have, however, been some blockbuster-sized hits this year — Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire and Kung Fu Panda 4 — and some movies that have wildly overperformed: Bob Marley: One Love ($180 million on a $70 million budget) and The Beekeeper ($152 million on a $40 million budget).

What I have been most excited about in 2024, however, has been the continued success of less expensive horror movies and films targeting adult audiences. A24 had its biggest box office hit with Civil War — $114 million on a $50 million budget — and Zendaya’s Challengers has quietly racked up $90 million on a $55 million budget (and will obviously do well on digital/streaming). Mean Girls has also killed it despite the audience’s supposed dislike of musicals ($104 million on a $35 million budget), and even Dev Patel’s excellent Monkey Man has eked out a profit ($32 million worldwide on a $10 million budget). If studios want to continue making more movies like these, I’d be fine with that.

Horror, meanwhile, is never going to break box office records (with the occasional It-like movie as an exception), but these films have been surprisingly resilient. That’s true even of the bad ones — Night Swim did $54 million on a $15 million budget; First Omen has earned a decent $52 million on a $30 million budget; and Tarot has scored $42 million on an $8 million budget. The good horror movies have done well, too: Abigail earned $42 million on a $28 million budget; The Strangers: Chapter 1 made $34 million against an $8 million budget; Immaculate grossed $25 million on an $8 million budget; and the best horror movie of the year, Late Night with the Devil, earned $11 million on a $1 million budget.

It’s not all bad, and we always have to remind ourselves that most movie studios are corporate-owned, and the one thing that corporations are good at (for better or worse) is turning a profit. The domestic opening weekend box office is rarely the whole story (except with Furiosa, unfortunately). If there is one thing we have decidedly learned in 2024, however, it’s that moviegoing audiences are clearly done with the Guy Ritchie style of filmmaking (see Argyle, The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare, and the three Guy Ritchie-directed films prior to that). Then again, his TV adaptation of The Gentleman has been a huge hit for Netflix, so who the hell knows?