Timothee's SAG Award Win Has Shaken Up Oscar Season

The 31st Screen Actors Guild Awards took place last night and they decided to shake up Oscar season at the last minute.

The actors’ contingent of the Academy make up a huge chunk of Oscar voters, so the SAG Awards is seen as a more reliable indicator of Oscar glory than, say, the Golden Globes. While there were a few safe wins, like Kieran Culkin and Zoe Saldaña’s continuing domination of the season, we were thrown a huge curveball in the form of Best Actor. Timothee Chalamet, to the surprise of everyone (himself included), won for his performance as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown over the expected victor, Adrien Brody.

Does this mean that Timmy is our new frontrunner? Brody certainly has more hardware on his shelves for his work in The Brutalist and seemed to be sweeping the season. But the controversy over the use of AI in the film to refine the Hungarian accents of Brody and Felicity Jones may have made an impact on voters. It might also just be that SAG loves itself a biopic and they can’t resist rewarding one of their own for doing all that work to pretend to be another famous person. They do love it when actors do that.

Best Actress went to Demi Moore for The Substance, a film and performance that is the polar opposite of the seeming safeness of a biopic role. This puts one more point in her favour for the Oscar against her biggest competition, Mikey Madison from Anora.

Indeed, Anora went home empty-handed. The big award for ensemble — essentially the SAG version of Best Picture — went to Conclave. It’s a meaty movie with a big cast full of actors the industry loves and they wanted to celebrate that. As I said in my piece on the Best Picture race, Conclave is the ideal consensus pick for 2024. Everyone likes it. It’s a well-made and very watchable movie. Nobody is mad at Conclave.

The rest of the night was pretty expected: Zoe Saldaña and Kieran Culkin added more trophies to their collection. Shōgun was a big winner in the TV section, winning for ensemble, and drama performances. Colin Farrell took home an actor for his work in The Penguin while Jessica Gunning of Baby Reindeer fame has completed the set with her absolute sweep of victories. Only Murders in the Building won for comedy ensemble, beating The Bear, Abbott Elementary, and Hacks.

So, how does this all change the Oscar race? Well, Adrien Brody might want to go shake a few more hands and get the word out that the AI stuff is only a teeny part of a very long movie. Demi has a clearer route to the big one but Mikey Madison is still a threat, especially if those older and more conservative voters keep hating horror. Kieran knows he’s winning this and Saldaña is probably relieved that she doesn’t have to speak to Karla Sofia Gascón anymore. Conclave feels like a good Best Picture frontrunner. But, as William Goldman once famously said of the Oscars, nobody knows anything.

Here are the winners of the 31st SAG Awards.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture — Conclave

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture — The Fall Guy

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role — Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role — Demi Moore (The Substance)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role — Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role — Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Perez)

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series — Shōgun

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series — Only Murders in the Building

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series — Shōgun

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series — Colin Farrell (The Penguin)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series — Jessica Gunning (Baby Reindeer)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series — Hiroyuki Sanada (Shōgun)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series — Anna Sawai (Shōgun)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series — Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series — Jean Smart (Hacks)