Which of These Five Actors at the Highest Risk for Overexposure?

By Dustin Rowles | Posted Under Seriously Random Lists | Comments (52)

Back in 2004, Jude Law was in six major films released that year (and a seventh was released at the trail end of 2003). It was that prolific period that so overexposed Jude Law that it nearly killed his career; he didn’t have another hit until Sherlock Holmes, and even that was mostly thanks to Robert Downey, Jr. (though, Law was quite good in Holmes). Clearly, Law learned nothing from that earlier experience because, now that his name is hot again, he’s lined up six more projects over the next two years, determined to wear out his welcome twice in one career (a feat that John Travolta has also accomplished).

It is the cautionary tale of Jude Law that makes one worried when a particularly talented actor falls into the same trap. It’s great to strike while the iron is hot, but if you strike too often, the iron will burn out. Jeremy Renner is the latest actor who seems to have fallen into the trap, signing on this week for yet another major movie, playing Steve McQueen in a biopic scripted by James Gray and directed by newcomer, video director Ivan Zacharias.

With that project, Renner is now a frontrunner to be the next Jude Law, the next major star to flame out due to overexposure and the inevitable backlash. A shame, too, because Renner is great.

Who are the other four contenders? Below is the list of the five leading men who have the most potential for burning out over the next two years, with a list of their upcoming projects and the odds of burnout.

James Franco (Odds — 1.5-1): The Broken Tower, Maladies, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, The Iceman, Oz: The Great and Powerful and potentially Sal Mineo: A Biography (Note, too, that he’s already coming off of three movies within the last year, in addition to a Green Hornet cameo).

Ryan Reynolds: (Odds — 3-1): Green Lantern, The Change-Up, Safe House, R.I.P.D., Deadpool and two voice roles in animated features.

Jeremy Renner (Odds — 2-1): The Steven McQueen Biopic, a cameo in Thor, The Avengers, Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters, Mission Impossible — Ghost Protocol, The Bourne Legacy and Better Living through Chemistry.

Sam Worthington: (Odds: 1-1) The Debt, Last Night, The Fields, Man on a Ledge, Wrath of Titans, Drift and eventually those two Avatar sequels.

Tom Hardy: (Odds: 10-1) Warrior, This Means War, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, The Dark Knight Rises and The Wettest County in the World.

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Which actor do you think will burn out the quickest?

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Worthington, because it increases the chances of the world realizing that HE CAN'T FREAKING ACT.

Posted by: Exploding Head Syndrome at April 29, 2011 10:14 AM

Anne Hathaway

Posted by: Summer at April 29, 2011 10:19 AM

Mmmmm ... not Tom Hardy, please.

Are we sure that's Egg Worthington there? And not a strangely buffed up/dentures-wearing Ewan Macgregor?

Posted by: Kettle at April 29, 2011 10:19 AM

To Tom Hardy and Jeremy Renner's benefit, most movie goers probably don't know who they are yet. They're that guy from Inception and that other guy from S.W.A.T. respectively.

I think the clear winner (loser?) is Ryan Reynolds. Two comic book films in one year where he's playing the exact same type of personality? Not a smart move.

Posted by: Robert at April 29, 2011 10:23 AM

If by "overexposure" you mean getting naked, Tom Hardy is still most likely to carry that out. But? I'll never tired of his pout and it isn't like I'll actually see all of the movies that these actors are in.

Posted by: Pinky McLadybits at April 29, 2011 10:26 AM

We need to play the synonym game for Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy.
Duty Beckons us.

Innocuous Word, Clothing Repairman, Member of the General Infantry, Covert Operative

Fiddles With Things, Good With a Needle, Grenadier, Sneaky Sneaky Guy

Not fair that he's in a movie called The Wettest County in the World. Christ, Tom, would leave a wench or two for us?

Posted by: D-Day at April 29, 2011 10:28 AM

I think the problem with Jude Law is that he was also a big tabloid story at the same time. Honestly, though, I never considered him to be overexposed.
I don't think any of these guys are in much danger of that, even Ryan Reynolds. He's much too likeable.

Posted by: Whorish Mouth at April 29, 2011 10:34 AM

Now that there are two Hemsworths, Sam Worthington has got to be concerned.

Posted by: Will at April 29, 2011 10:37 AM

I am less worried for Tom Hardy, but that is a. because he is adorable and b. because that picture looks nothing like him.

Posted by: Anne At Large at April 29, 2011 10:38 AM

I cannot for the life of me ever tell Tom Hardy and Sam Worthington apart.

Posted by: TheEmpress at April 29, 2011 10:38 AM

Meddle, Mend, Serviceman, Snoop

I get the point of "burning out", but you know what? Out of the above list, I like Tom Hardy and I especially like Jeremy Renner. I find both to be capable and charismatic actors. I'm glad to see them getting plum roles instead of a no-talent pretty-face. Plus they've both worked pretty hard and deserve to be at that spot where they're offered an abundance of projects. This ain't some Lautner-Pettyfer shit.

And I apologize, the above title should read "ServicePERSON."

Posted by: penelope at April 29, 2011 10:45 AM

Did you call your mom yet?

Posted by: Greedy at April 29, 2011 10:46 AM

There has to be a Devil and Sam Worthington sold his soul to him for this career. Thee is no other plausible explanation.

Posted by: logan at April 29, 2011 10:50 AM

I pray to Godtopus it's Worthington.

Posted by: elisamaza at April 29, 2011 10:58 AM

To me, the only way you don't rank Franco as the most likely is if you already think he's overexposed.

The main danger for RyRey is if both movies flop, or if they are are both successful and become franchises. If one flops or is just mediocre while the other is awesome, I think the lesser movie (sadly, I'd guess this would be GL) would be quickly forgotten.

Posted by: Socrates_Johnson at April 29, 2011 10:59 AM

it's franco, and it's not close, although i'm guessing that nobody would take the odds listed since the race has already been run. franco is done, has changed out of his racing silks, and has done the post-race press conference.

to me, he's only slightly less annoyingly in my face than paltrow.

Posted by: matty at April 29, 2011 11:04 AM

also: tom hardy? i have no idea who this person even is.

Posted by: matty at April 29, 2011 11:08 AM

Renner, easily. I'm already sick of that pug-faced little twat. Christ, look at his face. It's smaller than his fist! He looks like a Dick Tracy villain, for fuck's sake...

Posted by: Case at April 29, 2011 11:10 AM

Sam Worthington hasn't shown he can act. He was barely OK in Avatar, a movie where the acting was immaterial to its success. He was forgettable in Terminator Salvation, a movie that shit all over the franchise. He was awful in Clash of the Titans, an unholy CGI mess. Considering his resume I'd say he's already overexposed.

Posted by: ed newman at April 29, 2011 11:13 AM

In the case of Sam Worthington, one movie is over-exposure when you CANNOT ACT. But as for Tom Hardy, he can never be too exposed for my taste.

Posted by: Carolina Girl at April 29, 2011 11:24 AM

Tom Hardy sure does love those 1-word titles don't he?

Posted by: PissBoy at April 29, 2011 11:24 AM

I don't think James Franco starring in a fistful of indie/prestige films, a bad concept prequel, and an adaptation of a different L. Frank Baum novel means he's going to be overexposed. I don't think being in two stoner comedies people have seen marketing for in recent years (Pineapple Express and Your Highness) means he is overexposed, either. The "horrible Oscar host" didn't go past the film blogs and minor gossip rags. He might be overexposed to people who follow every ounce of movie knowledge, but for the general public, he's that guy who wore a dress on the Oscars or that stoner in Pineapple Express.

Posted by: Robert at April 29, 2011 11:26 AM

I can't get past the insinuation (I refuse to take it as fact) that Renner is going to (try to) play STEVE MCQUEEN.

Nobody can play Steve McQueen. It's not alloooowwweeed.

I may just have to start drinking, and it's like (checks clock) 8:30 am here. OK, so maybe its not that early. But it's the principle of the thing dammit. It's Steve McQueen! Ghaaaah.

Posted by: klingonfree at April 29, 2011 11:44 AM

We need much MORE Jeremy Renner, not less. And really, Franco's fine as long as he stays out of most blockbusters for a while.

Reynolds? I love him, but he's gotta start picking better movies and slow the hell down.

Posted by: ChristianH at April 29, 2011 11:44 AM

Also, while I agree with everyone in this thread that Worthington was awful in Avatar, he did out-act Christian Bale in that Terminator movie. I walked out of that one thinking "Okay, that guy's gonna be big." Not excusing his transgressions since, but he was alright in that flick.

Posted by: ChristianH at April 29, 2011 11:47 AM

I think Worthington is at the lowest risk--because he's so damn forgettable. He was in like 15 movies the last couple of years and I still can't remember what he looks like.

Posted by: Figgy at April 29, 2011 11:49 AM

@Mrcreosote

was just bout to ask the same thing.

And thank God there are ppl who think the new chick looks weird. N no I dun care if The Statham is mounting her.

i always hated when they change the romantic interest without any explanation like in MI:3. wat the hell happened to Thandie Newton's character after Tom Cruise spent the entire time saving her in M1:2 ? Or wat happened to N'Bushe Wright's character between Blade n Blade 2?

Where's the continuity?!

Posted by: haplo at April 29, 2011 12:11 PM

probably Worthington because he's not a good actor and he lacks charisma(he was watchable in TERMINATOR because he had something to act) but i don't understand Reynolds' appeal and i feel Franco's days is over

Posted by: caro at April 29, 2011 12:35 PM

The difference is that Tom Hardy is an actor unlike Ryan Reynolds. Tom Hardy can do characters whereas Ryan Reynolds can do Ryan Reynolds.

Posted by: maka at April 29, 2011 12:40 PM

Hardy is just getting started. He's a low risk.

Renner still isn't that well known either.

Reynolds is most at risk. His projects are repeats of one another. Maybe he's keeping busy so he won't have to think of his ex-wife getting it on with a dude old enough to be her dad? Dunno. He's going to have to keep out of the media in order for people to not get sick of him, and even then, I think the only thing that might keep him afloat is his likability.

Franco. I used to admire you so. *Sigh*

Posted by: Kala at April 29, 2011 12:43 PM

Portman.

Posted by: stump at April 29, 2011 12:49 PM

I think Renner is the next big star. His star turn in The Hurt Locker was incredible, as was his very different role in The Town. He's one of my favorite actors right now so I'm rooting for him to make it big. Worthington is almost played out, and I think Franco is done. Reynolds has his blockbuster potential riding on Green Lantern but he'll always have comedies and rom-coms to fall back on. Tom Hardy seems able to go between big budget and smaller movies with ease. I think he'll be fine but I doubt we'll ever see him become a major headliner.

Posted by: TylerDFC at April 29, 2011 12:56 PM

It’s great to strike while the iron is hot, but if you strike too often, the iron will burn out.

You are not a blacksmith sir, and I'll thank you to leave your mistaken presumptions to yourself.

Posted by: superasente at April 29, 2011 1:01 PM

Now that there are two Hemsworths, Sam Worthington has got to be concerned.

Agreed. And only slightly on-topic, I saw Chris Hemsworth on David Letterman last night and he was adorable and charming and has the best accent. Even among Australian accents, his was particularly roguish and sexy.

Tom Hardy has only BEGUN his takeover of all our media. And he can expose himself as much as he wants, tyvm.

Posted by: MM at April 29, 2011 2:15 PM

I'm assuming you consider Bradley Cooper to already be overexposed, hence his absence on this list.

Tom Hardy's in no danger, because he's fantastic. Like Mark Strong, I'm ok with him being in everything.

Posted by: Repo at April 29, 2011 2:35 PM

Repo I agree on all counts but most especially on the Mark Strong Appreciation. He's a pig, a prick, a crook, a murderous sonofa and capable of Tudor-era badassery. But My Mr. Knightley can do no wrong.

Posted by: klingonfree at April 29, 2011 3:01 PM

Charming Potato? I always get him and Worthlessington confused.

Let those 2 and Franco go away....

RyRey needs to stay around for me to ogle, Renner is awesome, and the more Tom Hardy, the better. As is take. off. your. clothes.

Posted by: dammitjanet at April 29, 2011 3:02 PM

never franco! but i am starting to feel some fatigue with reynolds. on to comments.

Posted by: splinter at April 29, 2011 3:08 PM

Tom Hardy is stellar. So not him. I vote Ryan Reynolds.

Posted by: Alwyn at April 29, 2011 4:09 PM

Natalie Portman!?!? I somehow have the feeling that she's in every second movie (although I like her!)...

Posted by: Julia at April 29, 2011 4:34 PM

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

So looking forward to this.
Not just for Hardy...but dear GOD, Benedict Cumberbatch (who is working on being the "next big thing" and I hope will not be on a list like this in the next few years), and Colin Firth AND Gary Oldman.

It must be hard to keep from being "over exposed" and keep working while trying to grab the big cash while you can.

Posted by: Jules at April 29, 2011 5:00 PM

If one flops or is just mediocre while the other is awesome, I think the lesser movie (sadly, I'd guess this would be GL) would be quickly forgotten.

You bite your tounge, Socrates_Johnson! BITE, I SAY!

Posted by: Green Lantern at April 29, 2011 6:37 PM

Tom Hardy exposure? One word: Bronson.

If I was his roommate while he filmed Bronson I would have moved ... to another country.

Posted by: The Mangler at April 29, 2011 9:22 PM

Aside from Tom Hardy (whom a friend of mine strongly resembles) I don't think I could tell most of those dudes apart without looking at the interwebs.

Posted by: Reina at April 29, 2011 10:11 PM

Reynolds wins for me just because I really don't get the hype that surrounds him.

Posted by: Matt at April 29, 2011 10:44 PM

Should we worry about Joseph Gordon Levitt? There's a lot of him goin around lately.

Posted by: klingonfree at April 30, 2011 12:38 AM

I was pretty sure that Cooper would show up here, too.

I don't know what a Benedict Cumberbatch is, but I hope it cures impetigo.

Posted by: Jo 'Mama' Besser at April 30, 2011 11:20 PM

Dustin, I must applaud.
Never thought you would be able to admit Reynolds' overexposure...
and if we're pretending this site is the center of the universe, you should have placed RDJ in here too.

Posted by: James at May 1, 2011 12:47 PM

Yeah, I think Franco's already in the process of burning out. Though I find it interesting that he may play Sal Mineo after having played James Dean. Ironical-ish.

Posted by: Anna von Beav at May 1, 2011 1:05 PM

Also, Mmmmmm Tom Hardy.

Posted by: Anna von Beav at May 1, 2011 1:07 PM

You know, whenever I see a picture of Sam Worthington, I think, "Why, yes, he is quite nice-looking in quite a conventional way," and then I glance away for a moment, I realize that unless I'm looking directly at a picture of Sam Worthington I have no fucking idea what he looks like. It's like some weird comic-book superpower: Forgettable Man. I've seen two or three of his movies and I hope to hell he's banking that money.

As for your last selection: Tom Hardy is a lot like Gary Oldman, in that there can never be too much of him, ever.

Posted by: Jerce at May 1, 2011 1:53 PM

SETH ROGEN! although i guess its dying down now since he's closing out with animated roles. But even his voice is overexposed at this point!

Posted by: the Dylanthropist at May 2, 2011 5:05 PM

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Which of These Five Actors at the Highest Risk for Overexposure?

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