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Republicans Think They're in the Drivers' Seat Now. Think Again, Bitches

By Dustin Rowles | Politics | June 21, 2017 | Comments ()

By Dustin Rowles | Politics | June 21, 2017 |


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In South Carolina last night, Ralph Norman, a Republican, defeated Archie Parnell, by four points in a heavily gerrymandered district where Mick Mulvaney won by 21 points the last two elections. No one is crying about the Democrat’s loss in South Carolina, because no one expected the Democrat to win.

Meanwhile, in Georgia, where a Democrat was running in a district where Tom Price won by 23 points, Jon Ossoff lost by a similar margin and the Democrats are crestfallen, demoralized. Republicans are rubbing it in our faces.

Our problem in the Georgia Sixth last night was not the result, it was the expectation. We got our hopes up. It was ridiculous to believe that a Democrat could win in Newt Gingrich’s district. Jon Ossoff ended up with 48 percent of the vote, which is the same percentage he had in the primary. There was a ceiling for Ossoff, and most likely, for any Democrat.

That 30-year-old kid ran a great race. Nationally, the Dems flooded his campaign with money. There were no major missteps. Ossoff did as well as should have been expected, and he just got beat.

Was it an un-winnable district for any Democrat? I don’t know, but maybe? Karen Handel was a garbage candidate. She said she didn’t support a livable wage. She doesn’t think that gays or lesbians should be able to adopt. She believes that abortion should be criminalized, and she still won. That says to me that there are just too many people in the sixth district who swing too far to the right to vote for a Democrat, regardless of who that Democrat is.

I have no doubt that Trump hurt Handel, but as I said after Quist lost in Montana, the Trump effect only gets Democrats so far: It gets us about a 5-7 point advantage. That’s not enough to overcome districts that are 65-70 percent conservative. A guy who believes that abortion should be criminalized or that gay couples shouldn’t be allowed to adopt is never going to vote for a Democrat, no matter how unpopular the President is.

As much as I had hoped Ossoff would win last night, I’m not reading too much into the trend. I’m not going to let the Republicans create the narrative. The Dems need only a 5-point swing nationally over their 2016 margins to take back 53 seats in the House. We are 0-4 in the special elections, but in each one of them, we’ve seen 10-20 point swings in favor of the Democrats. That still bodes incredibly well for the midterms. We’re not going to take back seats in Alabama, or other deeply Red districts, but we will in the Arizona 2nd. We’ll take back Darrell Issa’s seat. And Tom MacArthur’s seat. And two dozen others.

We got this.

Look at it this way: In 2007, the New York Giants faced the undefeated New England Patriots in the final regular season game of the year. The Giants had a slow start to the season, but they were surging late. That game was an absolute barn burner, one of the best regular season games I ever remember watching. The Patriots came back from a 12-point deficit and won 38-35 to become the first 16-0 team since the 1972 Miami Dolphins.

Were the Giants demoralized? Hell no. “There is nothing but positives,” Giants coach Tom Coughlin said after the game.

Do you guys remember who won the Super Bowl that year? The New York fucking Giants, that’s who. The Pats went 18-1 that year and all anyone remembers is the one loss, the most satisfying loss in NFL history. So just think of the Ossoff race as the last regular season game before the midterms. Ossoff nearly won in an un-winnable district, but just wait until the Democrats come to town where there are 53 winnable districts up for grabs.

Those tweets come from Jason Kander, formerly the Missouri Secretary of State, who ran against Roy Blunt for his Senate seat in Missouri this year. It was a close race. Far closer than anyone expected. Kander narrowly lost in an election he had no business winning in a state that Trump won.

You think he’s demoralized? No. That guy has a very decent chance of being the President in 2020 or 2024 or 2028. He is fucking phenomenal, too, and he delivered one of the best Fuck You political ads I have ever seen.



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