A Quick-and-Dirty Nate Silvering of the Oscar Race
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A Quick-and-Dirty Nate Silvering of the Oscar Race

By Dustin Rowles | Miscellaneous | February 12, 2013 | Comments ()


To satiate my own curiosity, because people always talk about certain awards shows being bellwethers for the Oscars, I decided to do some very amateur Nate Silver analysis of the Oscar race, because it's Tuesday and I felt like it. So, basically, what I did was to take the winners from five awards shows and did the math (doing some split percentage gimmickry with the awards shows that give awards to both comedy and drama in some categories). Please don't ask me to replicate the math, but if you want to do your own analysis, pick your own favorite five awards shows (three of the ones I picked were BAFTA, SAGs, and Golden Globes) and go to town. It probably won't help you with your Oscar ballots because Academy voters tend to drink heavily before handing in their ballots, and also, accept handouts (and handjobs) from Harvey Weinstein.

The gist of it, however, is that Argo will win best picture, Ben Affleck should win best director but he's ineligible, Daniel Day Lewis is a virtual lock for Best Actor, while Anne Hathaway is a near certainty for Best Supporting Actress (prepare yourself for a very unctuous speech). Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor are a little more wide open, with Jennifer Lawrence clinging to a lead in the Actress category, while Christopher Waltz and Tommy Lee Jones are even in the race for Supporting Actor. I kind of hope Arkin pulls it out in an upset.

Best Picture

Beasts of the Southern Wild -- (0 percent)
Silver Linings Playbook (5 percent)
Zero Dark Thirty -- (0 percent)
Lincoln -- (0 percent)
Les Miserables -- (0 percent)
Life of Pi -- (0 percent)
Amour -- (10 percent)
Django Unchained -- (0 percent)
Argo -- (85 percent)

Best Director

David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook -- (0 percent)
Ang Lee, Life of Pi -- (0 percent)
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln -- (0 percent)
Michael Haneke, Amour -- (20 percent)
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild -- (0 percent)

(Ben Affleck -- 80 percent. Not nominated)

Best Actor

Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln -- (90 percent)
Denzel Washington, Flight -- (0 percent)
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables -- (5 percent)
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook -- (5 percent)
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master -- (0 percent)

Best Actress
Naomi Watts, The Impossible -- (0 percent)
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty -- (30 percent)
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook -- (50 percent)
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour -- (10 percent)
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild -- (0 percent)

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained - (40 percent)
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master - (20 percent)
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook -- (0 percent)
Alan Arkin, Argo -- (0 percent)
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln -- (40 percent)

Best Supporting Actress
Sally Field, Lincoln -- (0 percent)
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables -- 80 percent
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook -- (0 percent)
Helen Hunt, The Sessions -- (0 percent)
Amy Adams, The Master -- (20 percent)

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