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A Quick-and-Dirty Nate Silvering of the Oscar Race

By Dustin Rowles | Miscellaneous | February 12, 2013 | Comments ()


The gist of it, however, is that Argo will win best picture, Ben Affleck should win best director but he's ineligible, Daniel Day Lewis is a virtual lock for Best Actor, while Anne Hathaway is a near certainty for Best Supporting Actress (prepare yourself for a very unctuous speech). Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor are a little more wide open, with Jennifer Lawrence clinging to a lead in the Actress category, while Christopher Waltz and Tommy Lee Jones are even in the race for Supporting Actor. I kind of hope Arkin pulls it out in an upset.

Best Picture

Beasts of the Southern Wild -- (0 percent)
Silver Linings Playbook (5 percent)
Zero Dark Thirty -- (0 percent)
Lincoln -- (0 percent)
Les Miserables -- (0 percent)
Life of Pi -- (0 percent)
Amour -- (10 percent)
Django Unchained -- (0 percent)
Argo -- (85 percent)

Best Director

David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook -- (0 percent)
Ang Lee, Life of Pi -- (0 percent)
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln -- (0 percent)
Michael Haneke, Amour -- (20 percent)
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild -- (0 percent)

(Ben Affleck -- 80 percent. Not nominated)

Best Actor

Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln -- (90 percent)
Denzel Washington, Flight -- (0 percent)
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables -- (5 percent)
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook -- (5 percent)
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master -- (0 percent)

Best Actress
Naomi Watts, The Impossible -- (0 percent)
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty -- (30 percent)
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook -- (50 percent)
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour -- (10 percent)
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild -- (0 percent)

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained - (40 percent)
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master - (20 percent)
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook -- (0 percent)
Alan Arkin, Argo -- (0 percent)
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln -- (40 percent)

Best Supporting Actress
Sally Field, Lincoln -- (0 percent)
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables -- 80 percent
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook -- (0 percent)
Helen Hunt, The Sessions -- (0 percent)
Amy Adams, The Master -- (20 percent)



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