A Quick-and-Dirty Nate Silvering of the Oscar Race

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A Quick-and-Dirty Nate Silvering of the Oscar Race

By Dustin Rowles | Miscellaneous | February 12, 2013 | Comments ()


To satiate my own curiosity, because people always talk about certain awards shows being bellwethers for the Oscars, I decided to do some very amateur Nate Silver analysis of the Oscar race, because it's Tuesday and I felt like it. So, basically, what I did was to take the winners from five awards shows and did the math (doing some split percentage gimmickry with the awards shows that give awards to both comedy and drama in some categories). Please don't ask me to replicate the math, but if you want to do your own analysis, pick your own favorite five awards shows (three of the ones I picked were BAFTA, SAGs, and Golden Globes) and go to town. It probably won't help you with your Oscar ballots because Academy voters tend to drink heavily before handing in their ballots, and also, accept handouts (and handjobs) from Harvey Weinstein.

The gist of it, however, is that Argo will win best picture, Ben Affleck should win best director but he's ineligible, Daniel Day Lewis is a virtual lock for Best Actor, while Anne Hathaway is a near certainty for Best Supporting Actress (prepare yourself for a very unctuous speech). Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor are a little more wide open, with Jennifer Lawrence clinging to a lead in the Actress category, while Christopher Waltz and Tommy Lee Jones are even in the race for Supporting Actor. I kind of hope Arkin pulls it out in an upset.

Best Picture

Beasts of the Southern Wild -- (0 percent)
Silver Linings Playbook (5 percent)
Zero Dark Thirty -- (0 percent)
Lincoln -- (0 percent)
Les Miserables -- (0 percent)
Life of Pi -- (0 percent)
Amour -- (10 percent)
Django Unchained -- (0 percent)
Argo -- (85 percent)

Best Director

David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook -- (0 percent)
Ang Lee, Life of Pi -- (0 percent)
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln -- (0 percent)
Michael Haneke, Amour -- (20 percent)
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild -- (0 percent)

(Ben Affleck -- 80 percent. Not nominated)

Best Actor

Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln -- (90 percent)
Denzel Washington, Flight -- (0 percent)
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables -- (5 percent)
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook -- (5 percent)
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master -- (0 percent)

Best Actress
Naomi Watts, The Impossible -- (0 percent)
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty -- (30 percent)
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook -- (50 percent)
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour -- (10 percent)
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild -- (0 percent)

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained - (40 percent)
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master - (20 percent)
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook -- (0 percent)
Alan Arkin, Argo -- (0 percent)
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln -- (40 percent)

Best Supporting Actress
Sally Field, Lincoln -- (0 percent)
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables -- 80 percent
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook -- (0 percent)
Helen Hunt, The Sessions -- (0 percent)
Amy Adams, The Master -- (20 percent)

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Comments Are Welcome, Bigots and Trolls Are Not

  • Buck Forty

    I just do NOT understand all the fuss over Argo. At all.
    It left me feeling so blasé I'm not even going to other with a pithy description of how mediocre it was.

  • Lovely Bones

    The Best Actress category only adds up to 90 percent, Dustin. 50 for JLaw, 30 for Jessica Chastain, (god it depresses me that there's no chance in hell she'll win) and 10 for Emmanuelle Riva equals 90. Was Riva supposed to get 20, or. .?

  • Arran

    They don't have to add up. In some cases non-nominees may have won major awards. There's only 20% under director because Ben Affleck wasn't nominated, yet has won 80% of the awards.

  • Lovely Bones

    Then surely the non-nominated should somehow be designated, like with the Ben Affleck part under Best Director, no? It just stands out as nonsensical being the only one that does so. I'm sorry for trying to call someone out without apparently fully understanding what was being done, and thanks for informing me.

  • anvitaj

    Look, I really don't care if they give Anne Hathaway the award- as long as I don't have to listen to her annoying self on stage. Can she commission Jennifer Lawrence to speak for her, please?

  • sean

    I care. That means we will never be rid of her. EVER. Hathaway will be tormenting us for decades to come.

  • Luke Anthony Matthews

    I for one think Sally Field should win over Anne Hathaway. I like Hathaway, but I don't think Les Mis is deserving of oscars exactly.

  • Untamed

    For sure Argo is going to win. It's a self congratulatory movie in the self congratulatory award season. It's all about how Hollywood saved those people. Even a film about poor people triumphing couldn't have stood a chance, much less all of the superior films running in the same category.

  • TheKoiPolloi

    Funny, I thought it was about how the CIA guy who thought outside the box saved those people.

  • Untamed

    Entre tú y yo, estoy de acuerdo. Todo está en su punto de vista.

  • TheKoiPolloi

    Relevant to your point:

    "For all that we talk about Hollywood liberalism, the Academy appears to be converging around a movie that allows us to feel as good as possible about the way the United States handles the blowback of our foreign policy."

    I thought Zero Dark Thirty was the better movie, but it certainly didn't make me *feel* better. Ergo, Argo.

  • Louise

    Can someone explain the difference between the voting blocs for the DGA and the Oscars? He won the BAFTA, the Golden Globe....even the SAG voters seemed to like Affleck. Who were the people who denied him the Oscar nomination?

  • kirbyjay

    I agree

    In the AA actors vote for actors, set designers vote for set designers, writers vote for writers... that would mean directors vote for directors, no nomination, yet he wins the Directors Guild. Who votes for best director in the Directors Guild? Plumbers?

    That would be my #1 question for awards season.
    #2 Who the hell dresses Julianne Moore

  • zeke_the_pig

    If it had been the 'Holy-Shit-We're-Still-Surprised-He's-Actually-Good-At-This' award, Affleck would've been a lock.

  • KatSings

    The Director category is so crazy this year, since all the lead up would have it a lock for Affleck. I'm interested to see how that plays out.

  • missiz

    I can't believe Samuel L Jackson didn't get nominated. Best supporting performance by far.

  • Lyn

    Totally agree, but also the most discomfiting. Sadly not surprised they went with Waltz, the scenery-chewing (shut up about German mythology and maybe let Django say something), closest-to-decent white person in the movie. (Waltz was good as always, but the character drove me crazy.) I would have picked DiCaprio over Waltz as well.

  • Kballs

    You bolded stuff funny, Dustin. Thank goodness you don't have a job bolding stuff or you'd get fired for bolding the unboldable! They'd be all, "What is all this bolding over here, D-Row? I wanted bold here, and here, and here. Please hand in your HTML tags and get the fuck out my office."

  • Mrs. Julien

    But he'd get to keep his D-Row name badge, right?

  • Kballs

    Absolutely not! We'll have to make him a special one and force him to wear it all the time, even during the act of love.

    To start, it absolutely must be written in Comic Sans font. This is non-negotiable.

  • Mrs. Julien

    This is why the tattoo really is the best answer.

    Subject: [jiba] Re: A Quick-and-Dirty Nate Silvering of the Oscar Race

  • Artemis

    I'm rooting for DeNiro. Arkin was fun but that wasn't exactly a taxing role. Both DeNiro and Cooper really blew me away in Silver Linings Playbook (much more so than JLaw, much as I love her), and with DDL a lock for Best Actor I hope DeNiro gets some love instead.

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