The "Game Of Thrones" Death Watch: Episode 3.1

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The "Game Of Thrones" Death Watch: Episode 3.1

By Brandon Johnson | Comment Diversions | April 5, 2013 | Comments ()

(Editor's Note: We will be running the Death Watch each Friday, courtesy of our buddy Brandon. Two things to keep in mind: 1) There WILL be spoilers of any and all past episodes. 2) Do NOT spoil any future events. At all. This is a zero tolerance policy, much like the reviews. Any comment with any spoiler gets deleted. Other than that, please enjoy our most awesome new weekly edition of "Game Of Thrones" Death Watch. --TK)

In Game of Thrones, more than just about any other show I've watched, anybody can be an episode away from getting killed. Being an engineer by trade, I wanted to put some numbers to it, and so the Game of Thrones Death Watch was born. The Death Watch will be a weekly rating of the likelihood of each character getting killed THIS season. I just assume most everyone will be dead by the end (save Hodor. Never Hodor), so lets just take this one season at a time. A rating of 1 is as safe as you can be, while a 10 means I fully expect you to be gone next episode.

Two important notes: I've watched the first two seasons, and I've read the first two books, but nothing past that. There's only minimal extra information from the second book, and I'll do my very best to keep that out of the equation. I won't be reading the third book and know nothing of what's going to happen, so anything about the future of the characters is purely a guess. If you have read the books, feel free to read and laugh at my ignorance, BUT LEAVE THE COMMENTS SECTION ALONE.

Second, my ratings are based on the situations the characters are in, but also my guesses to how the writers are framing the story. For example, Arya is certainly in a dangerous enough situation, but they've spent too much time developing her character to kill her anytime soon. Tywin, on the other hand, is in about as safe of a place as he can be, but his death would create so many interesting scenarios that I think he's very vulnerable.

Without further ado, here's the list. I've tried my best to group the families or related characters together, but I'm open to suggestions. Who do you think is most likely to eat it this season? Let me know in the comments with your reasoning, and I'll factor that into my thinking for future weeks.

Stannis Baratheon: 3. Pretty safe as long as he's holed up at Dragonstone. Needs time to rebuild before he'll do anything.
Joffrey Baratheon: 2. The worst ones always live.
Tomin Baratheon: 2
Marcela Baratheon: 2

Tywin Lannister: 6. His death would open up a lot more potential storylines than it closes a la Ned is season 1
Lancel Lannister: 5
Jaime Lannister: 4
Cersei Lannister: 3
Tyrion Lannister: 1. I can't handle the idea of him being anything higher.
Loras Tyrell: 4. I get the feeling Cersei is going to use him to try to control Margaery
Margaery Tyrell: 2

Sansa Stark: 4. No longer protected by betrothal to Joffrey and is scheming. More scheming = more danger.
Rickon Stark: 4. No character development, pretty disposable.
Catelyn Stark: 3. Lot of angry Northmen around her and she gave away the Kingslayer.
Robb Stark: 2
Talisa Maegyr (Stark?): 2
Arya Stark: 1. They've planted too many seeds with Arya for her to go anywhere
Bran Stark: 1. Same as Arya
Summer: 3
Shaggy Dog: 3
Grey Wind: 3
Nymeria: If you're not confirmed dead, I assume you'll show back up eventually. Same goes for Direwolves.

Daenerys Targaryen: 1
Jorah Mormont: 6. With Barristan around, he's a lot more expendable.
Barristan Selmy: 3. He just got here, he's safe for a little while.
Dragon 1: 1
Dragon 2: 2
Dragon 3: 4. If you're ever going to kill one, now is the time to do it.

Jon Snow: 1
Ghost: 4
Ygritte: 2
Samwell Tally: 2. Do people like him? I'd be okay with him going, but I think he's probably safe. He won't exactly be on the front lines.
Commander Mormont: 6. In the middle of nowhere surrounded by things that want to kill them and no help coming.
Mance Rayder: 2

Maester Pycell: 3
Shae: 7. Already threatened by Tywin.
Hound: 5
Bronn: 4
Varys: 1. What enemies does he have?
Petyr Balish: 5. Harranhall is cursed.

Davos Seaworth: 8. This is a huge improvement over last time we saw him
Melisandre: 7. Too many people want her dead.

Brienne: 5. 80 Stark men coming after her and Jaime, and she doesn't serve the Starks.

Theon Greyjoy: 6. Fingers crossed.

Gendry: 3
Hot Pie: 5. They are bound to run into trouble, and his pie-baking skills won't help.

Osha: 2. Knows how to survive in the wild
Hodor: 2. How would Bran get anywhere?

Ned Stark: Dead
Robert Baratheon: Dead
Renly Baratheon: Dead
Maester Lewin: Dead
Lady: Dead

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Comments Are Welcome, Bigots and Trolls Are Not

  • not into blood

    Bloody posts!!!!!

  • yocean

    On rather unrelated note: If Game of Thrones was a fighting video game, Joffrey's special move would be "Baratheon Bitchface."

  • yocean

    That's Tommen and Myrcellla Baratheon-Lannister, son! I wrote a spec script and these kids get more important in later books, so pay little more attention, little more than show runners are allowing at this point..

  • ThePhantomGuinness

    First of all, it is Samwell Tarly. Second, the queen is going to use the gay brother of Margaery to stop her? The queen, who admitted that her greatest power is her sexual appeal? Hilarious.

  • lowercase_ryan

    What enemies does Varys have? Seriously?

  • gatesong

    Right? What FRIENDS does Varys have?

  • Aaron Schulz

    Oh the spoily spoliers that could be spoiled, i want to readjust your list!

  • Vince

    You know nothing, Brandon Johnson.

  • Just give up'll go crazy as the show continues.

  • koko temur

    Oh, for fucks sake, how hard is it to put a thread up for book readers so we could laugh at your future pain?! Oh, i guess that is exactly why. Carry on.

  • BWeaves

    OK, I haven't read the books, and I don't have HBO, so I'm always a season behind, so here are my guesses:

    1's. These are the people Martin has invested too much time developing to just kill randomly (although I don't put it past him, just for the shock value).

    Dany, Tyrion, Arya, Jon Snow, and Bran.

    With 2's being Samwell, Gendry,

    10's. These people deserve to die. It's just a question of when.

    Joffrey, Ilyn Glen (tongueless?), the Hound, Tywin, Cersei, Jaimie, The Mountain, Theon, Melisandre.

    With 9's being Mormont the elder.

    4-6's. These are people who are just interesting enough that you'd hate to see them go, but they'll bite it eventually:

    Brienne, Bron, Osha, Shae, Littlefinger, Jorah Mormont.

  • koko temur

    The hound? What did the hound ever do to you?

  • BWeaves

    He looked at me funny.

  • Wōđanaz Óðinn

    Stop playing with matches and he'll leave you alone.

  • Wonk

    "Tyrion Lannister: 1. I can’t handle the idea of him being anything higher."
    Ha ha...ha..hhhh.

  • lowercase_ryan

    I feel like Biff Tannen back from the future to wreck a sports book. Ok, let's talk wagers.

  • Monica

    I would add the other Greyjoys as well... something's gotta happen there but I wouldn't know quite how to rank them. The Dad higher and Yara lower?

  • I have to remind myself, whenever I see TV talk about Yara, that you're talking about Asha Greyjoy. (Thank the seven I suppose that several Jeynes seem to have vanished between book and television.)

  • Maguita NYC

    It takes me a few before understanding who we're talking about, for my neighbor's Irish Setter is called Yara!

  • MissAmynae

    I still find it hilarious that they changed "Asha" to "Yara" because they wanted it to sound less like Arya. And yes, the jeynes are gone.

  • koko temur

    They changed Asha so not to confuse her with Osha. Which is less crazy.

  • MissAmynae

    I was about to get all indignant, and cite the article from 2011, but when I went back and found it, there was an editor's note that they had written the wrong name, and indeed meant to say "Osha". Ha! I'm still mad they changed her name, though. *hmph*

  • koko temur

    I find solace in the fact they changed it to a very greyjoy sounding name. Clearly the guys who make the show are fans of the dource material.

  • Andrew Spratt

    Save Hodor! Never Hodor!

    I second the Theon Greyjoy: 6. Fingers crossed.

    Great article. I wanted to pose a speculation to the GoT world...I haven't read any of the books or other literature on the series, so my knowledge only comes from the TV show. Does anyone think the dragon colors have any significance? The eggs were all different colors. Thoughts?

  • BWeaves

    One's a Hungarian Horntail, one's a Norwegian Ridgeback, and one's a Common Welsh Green.

  • Sometimes I really wish we could talk spoilers. My husband isn't a big reader (don't ask how we work as a couple, but we do), and I've read the whole series so far. I need somebody to talk to about what's coming up, but I'm stuck in Western Kansas and I feel like I'm the only person in a 200 mile radius that READS BOOKS. Help me Pajiba, you're my only hope!

  • Tinkerville

    Seriously. Now we have two weekly GOT posts where we can't talk about spoilers. Couldn't we have one for the book readers and one for the non-readers? The only purpose this death watch is going to serve for readers is for us to laugh (and cringe) at how blindsided everyone's going to be.

  • koko temur

    Seriously, some of the death come out of nowhere, but some are just so obvious, i cant even. How can you watch 9 episodes of a show where all the evil prosper and the good constantly outsmarted and then be surprised by neds stark death?
    And even if you surprised by that, how come you dont come prepered for the rest? This show has a point, people. Its hammered down pretty hard - the game of thrones is bad for you. The only way to survive is to be eeeeeevil.

  • Danar the Barbarian

    I read the books several years back. I can keep the events and characters of the first one straight in my head, but once we get into the later books, things get mushy, characters blend in my brain or get lost altogether, and I don't remember exactly who went where. So Season 3 is like deja vu for me - I don't know what's coming but I remember it once I see it. Make sense?

    Anyway, as far as not seeing Ned's death coming, I think as consumers of Hollywood's products, we are so used to good triumphing, of the righteous man being rewarded and vindicated, that it IS shocking when our hero gets beheaded. It was shocking in the book, and my husband, who hadn't read the books before Season One, was pretty taken aback (and he's a smart dude.) The Game of Thrones IS bad for you, and there are no rules except CYA. Some are just on a slower learning curve.

  • Jebus

    Go to they have in depth discussions for the books and series.

  • Thank you!

  • Seriously... I even came out of comment lurkdom to post this. I stay away, but looking at the list I just... I cannot. I cannot.

    The show has already killed a few things for me, so I watch a bit more passively than some, but still...

  • Generally, I've approved of the ways HBO has made changes. Husband said to me on Sunday, "I wish they could get rid of a few plot lines. It's so hard to keep it all together." And I just snorted. Buddy, you have no IDEA how much simpler they've made it! I can't spoil it for him, but I feel like I'm dying inside with this knowledge of what's coming. Especially when he lists his favorite characters!

  • Nyltiak

    I told my stupid ex, when we were watching, "If you like someone, they're almost certainly going to die. If you dislike someone they're almost certainly going to die. Seriously, George RR Martin kills everyone."

  • competitivenonfiction

    I like the HBO direction quite a bit more than I liked the books. And I liked the books.

  • Forbiddendonut

    I don't have anything to add, yet, but I'm back! (Not that anyone missed me.) Thanks to my firm finally deciding to upgrade to Internet Explorer 9, allowing me to finally access Disqus.

  • Mrs. Julien

    I missed you.

  • QueeferSutherland

    Love to see where some of these rankings stand the week before, uh, something happens.

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