The "Game Of Thrones" Death Watch: Episode 3.1
In Game of Thrones, more than just about any other show I've watched, anybody can be an episode away from getting killed. Being an engineer by trade, I wanted to put some numbers to it, and so the Game of Thrones Death Watch was born. The Death Watch will be a weekly rating of the likelihood of each character getting killed THIS season. I just assume most everyone will be dead by the end (save Hodor. Never Hodor), so lets just take this one season at a time. A rating of 1 is as safe as you can be, while a 10 means I fully expect you to be gone next episode.
Two important notes: I've watched the first two seasons, and I've read the first two books, but nothing past that. There's only minimal extra information from the second book, and I'll do my very best to keep that out of the equation. I won't be reading the third book and know nothing of what's going to happen, so anything about the future of the characters is purely a guess. If you have read the books, feel free to read and laugh at my ignorance, BUT LEAVE THE COMMENTS SECTION ALONE.
Second, my ratings are based on the situations the characters are in, but also my guesses to how the writers are framing the story. For example, Arya is certainly in a dangerous enough situation, but they've spent too much time developing her character to kill her anytime soon. Tywin, on the other hand, is in about as safe of a place as he can be, but his death would create so many interesting scenarios that I think he's very vulnerable.
Without further ado, here's the list. I've tried my best to group the families or related characters together, but I'm open to suggestions. Who do you think is most likely to eat it this season? Let me know in the comments with your reasoning, and I'll factor that into my thinking for future weeks.
Stannis Baratheon: 3. Pretty safe as long as he's holed up at Dragonstone. Needs time to rebuild before he'll do anything.
Joffrey Baratheon: 2. The worst ones always live.
Tomin Baratheon: 2
Marcela Baratheon: 2
Tywin Lannister: 6. His death would open up a lot more potential storylines than it closes a la Ned is season 1
Lancel Lannister: 5
Jaime Lannister: 4
Cersei Lannister: 3
Tyrion Lannister: 1. I can't handle the idea of him being anything higher.
Loras Tyrell: 4. I get the feeling Cersei is going to use him to try to control Margaery
Margaery Tyrell: 2
Sansa Stark: 4. No longer protected by betrothal to Joffrey and is scheming. More scheming = more danger.
Rickon Stark: 4. No character development, pretty disposable.
Catelyn Stark: 3. Lot of angry Northmen around her and she gave away the Kingslayer.
Robb Stark: 2
Talisa Maegyr (Stark?): 2
Arya Stark: 1. They've planted too many seeds with Arya for her to go anywhere
Bran Stark: 1. Same as Arya
Shaggy Dog: 3
Grey Wind: 3
Nymeria: If you're not confirmed dead, I assume you'll show back up eventually. Same goes for Direwolves.
Daenerys Targaryen: 1
Jorah Mormont: 6. With Barristan around, he's a lot more expendable.
Barristan Selmy: 3. He just got here, he's safe for a little while.
Dragon 1: 1
Dragon 2: 2
Dragon 3: 4. If you're ever going to kill one, now is the time to do it.
Jon Snow: 1
Samwell Tally: 2. Do people like him? I'd be okay with him going, but I think he's probably safe. He won't exactly be on the front lines.
Commander Mormont: 6. In the middle of nowhere surrounded by things that want to kill them and no help coming.
Mance Rayder: 2
Maester Pycell: 3
Shae: 7. Already threatened by Tywin.
Varys: 1. What enemies does he have?
Petyr Balish: 5. Harranhall is cursed.
Davos Seaworth: 8. This is a huge improvement over last time we saw him
Melisandre: 7. Too many people want her dead.
Brienne: 5. 80 Stark men coming after her and Jaime, and she doesn't serve the Starks.
Theon Greyjoy: 6. Fingers crossed.
Hot Pie: 5. They are bound to run into trouble, and his pie-baking skills won't help.
Osha: 2. Knows how to survive in the wild
Hodor: 2. How would Bran get anywhere?
Ned Stark: Dead
Robert Baratheon: Dead
Renly Baratheon: Dead
Maester Lewin: Dead